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02.04.202511:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 2025年4月2日英鎊兌美元匯率預測

在小時圖上,週二英鎊/美元貨幣對繼續橫盤整理。目前市場上多空雙方均未有明顯優勢——這種情況已經持續了一整個月。1.2931 水平位不夠強勁,因此不建議在該水平位尋找交易機會。若從 1.2865 水平反彈,則可以期待英鎊回升;而若跌破該水平,則表明橫盤區間結束並開始新的看跌趨勢。

Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis

最近完成的下降波浪並未打破先前的低點,而最近的上升波浪則突破了先前的高點。因此,牛市趨勢仍在形成中。儘管有經濟數據,大多數交易者仍不願購買美元,因為Donald Trump持續施加新關稅,預計將對美國及全球經濟成長帶來負面影響。要使牛市趨勢轉為熊市趨勢,貨幣對需穩定在1.2865以下。

週二的新聞背景令多頭與空頭失望。英國製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)不佳,排除對顯著GDP增長的期望。美國ISM製造業PMI也表現疲軟,而JOLTS報告甚至更低。Trump並未公佈任何有關新進口關稅的公告,交易者繼續等待。因此,當前唯一可以得出的結論是,貨幣對仍處於橫盤整理階段。由於市場當前缺乏動力,交易者最好等待該階段結束。

來自Trump的新關稅可能會引發美元下跌,但我不會再對這一情景過於確定。市場已有充分時間來評估關稅的總量及其潛在的經濟後果。很可能這已經反映在行情中。因此,美元可能會繼續回升——但前提是空頭開始採取行動,而截至目前,他們尚未這麼做。

Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis

在4小時圖上,該貨幣對仍處於多頭趨勢。我不預期英鎊會有顯著的下跌,除非該貨幣對跌破上升通道。從1.2994的38.2%斐波那契水平反彈再次有利於美元,導致匯率輕微下跌至50.0%回檔水平1.2861。CCI指標上的看漲背離支援了適度向上的運動可能性。與此同時,小时图顯示市場仍處於橫盤整理。

交易者承諾(COT)報告

Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis

在最新的報告中,「非商業」交易者類別的情緒變得更加樂觀。投機者持有的多頭頭寸增加了13,075手,而空頭頭寸減少了1,806手。市場上的空頭已經失去了優勢。多頭和空頭頭寸之間的差距現在已達到接近44,000,對多頭有利:109,000對65,000。

在我看來,英鎊仍然面臨下行風險,但最近的事件可能會促使市場發生長期逆轉。在過去的3個月中,多頭頭寸從98,000增長到109,000,而空頭頭寸從78,000減少到65,000。更值得注意的是,在過去的8周內,多頭從59,000增長到109,000,而空頭從81,000下降到65,000。提醒您一下,這是「特朗普領導下的8周」……

美國和英國的經濟日曆

  • 美國 – ADP就業變動(12:15 UTC)

在週三的經濟日曆上只有一項內容,這不太可能幫助打破目前的範圍。今天的新聞背景對市場情緒的影響可能最小,除非唐納德·特朗普打破沉默。

GBP/USD預測和交易建議

在小時圖上的1.3003水平反彈後,賣出該貨幣對是可能的,目標位在1.2931和1.2865,因為該貨幣對仍處於區間波動。買入是可能的,在從1.2865水平反彈後,目標位在1.2931和1.3003。

斐波那契水準在小時圖上從1.2809到1.2100繪製,並在4小時圖上從1.2299到1.3432繪製。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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