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03.04.202509:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 為何關稅問題影響所有人，但美元卻下跌？（英鎊/美元和歐元/美元在急速上漲後可能面臨回調）

近日美國美元在ICE指數上成功保持在關鍵的104.00標誌以上，這使人們對於避免進一步下跌燃起了希望。然而，為什麼美元對其它主要貨幣下跌，尤其是在貿易關稅應該也會對被針對的國家產生負面影響的情況下？

乍看之下，這似乎有些奇怪，但背後有明確的原因，而且這些原因很可能會繼續對美元施加壓力，直到局勢穩定下來。

如之前文章所述，如果特朗普沒有推出除最初宣布的關稅以外的任何措施，美元昨日可能會得到明顯支持。但事實並非如此。相反，這位美國總統超越了外匯市場、股票指數和國債收益率上此前已計入的措施。除了基礎的10%關稅這一相對溫和的數字（相較之前流傳的20%的數字將被視為積極因素）之外，他還宣布了一些針對特定國家的額外關稅。根據Evercore ISI 的數據，在所有新關稅實施後，新的加權平均關稅率可能上升至29%，達到超過一個世紀以來的最高水平。這意味著美國整體上施加的貿易壁壘遠高於最初預期。

對美國全面經濟危機和衰退的恐懼已經將投資者推向國債，導致收益率下滑並進一步加大了美元的下行壓力。外匯市場的這一跌勢並不是由於其他貨幣的強勢，而是因為美元的疲軟。比如，歐元的上漲與歐元區經濟問題相矛盾。根據最近的數據，通脹下降增加了進一步降息的可能性——這顯然是歐元兌美元的看跌因素，而如果今年晚些時候通脹回升，美元可能會在加息預期中找到支撐。

總而言之，美元的下跌大多是情緒上的反應。這一跌勢可能是短暫的，當對美國實際關稅率和貿易夥伴的報復性措施有更多的了解時，可能會結束。如上所述，對未知事物的恐懼正在推動美元走低。然而，這一跌勢可能會有利於美國，因為它提高了美國出口的競爭力，從而在長期內可能使經濟增強。在此期間，投機者可能會充分利用這一“關稅現實”，然後再在更低、更合適的價格水平進入市場。

今天的展望：

Exchange Rates 03.04.2025 analysis
Exchange Rates 03.04.2025 analysis
GBP/USD

該貨幣對目前在1.3100水平以上交易。如果無法保持在此水平之上，可能會回落至1.3035，然後是1.3000。

EUR/USD

該貨幣對目前在1.0880水平以上交易。如果無法持穩在此水平之上，可能會向下修正至1.0940，然後是1.0900。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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