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04.04.202520:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元/日元:新手交易者的簡單交易技巧 – 4月4日(美國交易時段)

日元交易回顧與建議

當價格測試146.16時,MACD指標已經顯著高於零線,這在空頭市場中限制了該貨幣對的上行潛力。基於這個原因,我選擇不買入美元。

今天晚些時候,大約在美國交易時段的中間,聯邦儲備主席鮑爾預定發表演講。他預計將對近期施加的美國關稅發表意見。這一事件可能會引發美元波動性的突然變化。投資者將仔細分析鮑爾的言論,以尋找任何關於聯儲如何評估貿易爭端對經濟增長和通脹影響的信號。如果主席對關稅的負面影響表示擔憂,美元可能會走弱。另一方面,如果他淡化風險並強調美國經濟的韌性,美元可能會走強。

在日內策略上,我將主要關注執行場景#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 04.04.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境1:我計劃今天在觸及145.83(圖表上的綠色線條)附近的進場點購買USD/JPY,目標是上升至147.52(較粗的綠色線條)。在147.52附近,我將退出多頭頭寸並在相反方向開倉,目標為回調30–35點。此貨幣對的上漲可以被視為上行修正的一部分。重要提示:在購買前,確保MACD指標在零線之上,並剛開始從此位置上升。

情境2:如果144.81水平連續測試兩次,而MACD指標處於超賣區,我也計劃購買USD/JPY。這將限制貨幣對的下行潛力,並引發向上的反轉。可以預期上升至145.83和147.52。

賣出信號

情境1:我計劃在跌破144.81(圖表上的紅色線條)後賣出USD/JPY,這可能會引發快速下跌。賣家的關鍵目標將是143.32,我將在此退出空頭頭寸並在相反方向開倉,目標為反彈20–25點。今天賣出的壓力可能隨時出現。重要提示:在賣出前,確保MACD指標在零線之下,並剛開始從此位置下降。

情境2:如果145.83水平連續測試兩次,而MACD指標處於超買區,我也計劃賣出USD/JPY。這將限制貨幣對的上行潛力,引發向下的反轉。可以預期下降至144.81和143.32。

Exchange Rates 04.04.2025 analysis

圖表上內容:

  • 細綠線 – 買入交易工具的進場價格;
  • 粗綠線 – 設置獲利了結或手動鎖定利潤的預估水平,因為此水平以上的進一步增長可能性不大;
  • 細紅線 – 賣出交易工具的進場價格;
  • 粗紅線 – 設置獲利了結或手動鎖定利潤的預估水平,因為此水平以下的進一步下跌可能性不大;
  • MACD 指標 – 進入市場時,監控超買和超賣區域是非常重要的。

重要提示:

初學者的外匯交易者在進入市場時應極其謹慎。在關鍵基本面報告發布前,最好避免進入市場,以避免受到劇烈價格波動的影響。如果選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易,務必設置止損以將損失降至最低。沒有止損的話,您可能會很快損失所有的存款—尤其是當您在沒有適當資金管理的情況下交易大額時。

請記住:成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃,如上所述的計劃。根據當前市場情況進行的自發決策對日內交易者來說是一種失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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