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07.04.202503:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元匯率概況 – 4月7日。非農數據和鮑威爾拯救了美元

Exchange Rates 07.04.2025 analysis

歐元/美元貨幣對在週三和週四下跌了超過300個基點，但週五出現強勁的反彈。如果美元在週五繼續下跌，沒有人會感到驚訝。市場對有利於美元的消息、事件和報告仍有選擇性地反應，而週五美國公佈的宏觀經濟數據有些許混雜。一方面，非農就業報告的數據顯著超出預期，但另一方面，失業率卻上升到4.2%，這是沒有人預測到的。

總的來說，市場仍處於混亂狀態。考慮到近期豐富的事件——有些甚至是非常重大的——很難確定市場已經消化了什麼，哪些仍在消化中，以及當下什麼最為重要。在此時做任何預測都是一項困難又不被看好的任務。如同預期，特朗普在4月2日推出了新的關稅，並在週末期間對所有進口啤酒加徵了另一項關稅。美國總統不打算就此止步，許多專家現在表示特朗普已經孤注一擲。他要麼激進地改變全球貿易體系以有利於美國，要麼將面臨全面失敗——而他表示，責任將由其他國家或Jerome Powell來承擔。

談到Powell，週五他再次表明，美聯儲不打算很快降息，因為評估關稅對經濟的影響需要耗費大量時間。美聯儲主席還指出，特朗普的關稅無疑會導致通脹上升（這使得降息變得更不合適）以及失業率上升。Powell再次強調美聯儲的首要目標是保持物價穩定。在我們看來，這是對特朗普的最強力的可能信息。

事實上，美聯儲主席已經闡明，央行不會關心總統的計劃。如果特朗普想基於他認為的秩序對全世界徵收關稅，他可以這麼做。但是為什麼美聯儲——作為一個獨立機構——需要承擔緩和這些行動後果的責任？如果美國經濟開始急遽放緩，責任一目了然。如果美聯儲通過降息來刺激經濟，通脹將進一步上升，央行將無法達到其目標。如果通脹居高不下，美聯儲會被責備；如果經濟萎縮，總統和政府將受到譴責。以這種方式，Powell再次劃清了責任線。我們將看看美國消費者將如何反應進口價格的急遽上升。全國性的抗議特朗普活動正在籌備中。

Exchange Rates 07.04.2025 analysis

截至4月7日，EUR/USD在過去五個交易日的平均波動率為157點，屬於"高"的水平。我們預計周一該貨幣對將在1.0804到1.1118之間波動。長期回歸通道向上，顯示短期看漲趨勢。CCI指標進入超買區，這表明可能出現修正，但目前趨勢仍然看漲。

最近的支撐位：

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0742

S3 – 1.0620

最近的阻力位：

R1 – 1.0986

R2 – 1.1108

R3 – 1.1230

交易建議：

EUR/USD繼續上行走勢，並正在形成趨勢。幾個月來，我們一直預期歐元在中期將下跌，目前此展望尚未改變。除了Donald Trump的影響外，美元暫時沒有中期下跌的理由。然而，正是這一因素一直將美元推向深淵。這種情況在外匯市場中是前所未有且相當少見的。空頭頭寸仍具吸引力，目標位在1.0315和1.0254，但目前很難預測Trump驅動的漲勢何時會結束或美國總統還會施加多少關稅和制裁。如果純粹依據技術面交易，只要價格仍高於移動平均線，則可以考慮多頭頭寸，目標位為1.1108和1.1230。

圖示說明：

線性回歸通道有助於判定當前趨勢。如果兩個通道對齊，則表明趨勢強勁。

移動平均線（設置：20,0，平滑處理）定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

Murray Levels作為波動和修正的目標位。

波動率水準（紅線）根據當前的波動率數據，表示未來24小時內該貨幣對可能的價格區間。

CCI指標：若進入超賣區（低於-250）或超買區（高於+250），表明可能出現相反方向的趨勢反轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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