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07.04.202509:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美國股市最新消息。川普的關稅政策導致美國股市暴跌。經濟衰退可能性存在，但當前的市場報價非常適合購買。

Exchange Rates 07.04.2025 analysis

S&P500

4月7日市場更新。

週五美國主要股指概況：* 道瓊斯指數 -5.5%* NASDAQ -5.8%* S&P 500 -6%

S&P 500目前交易在5,074，在4,700到5,700的日內範圍內波動。

週一上午，在電子交易中，S&P 500指數(SPX)再次大幅下跌至4,890，較週五收盤再度下降約3.5%。

因此，截至4月7日上午，美國主要市場指數已從2025年2月1日的高位下跌了20%。這是特朗普輕率行動在短時間內可能導致的結果。截至4月7日，美國市場市值至少損失了7萬億美元。

基準股指已連續第二個交易日進一步下跌，交易量高於平均水平。

納斯達克綜合指數(-5.8%)進入熊市，從有史以來的最高點下跌超過20%。S&P 500下跌6.0%，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌超過2,000點。

中國對美國關稅的回應是針對美國進口產品的34%關稅，這進一步加劇了貿易戰並減少了緊張局勢迅速緩和的希望。因此，全球經濟放緩的擔憂再次浮現，導致了市場回調中的避險情緒。

油價下跌7.5%至每桶62.02美元。國債收益率下降（2年期收益率下降5個基點至3.67%，10年期收益率下降7個基點至3.99%）。此外，CBOE波動性指數(VIX)上升至45.0以上。

貿易戰和經濟放緩的擔憂使今天的經濟數據黯然失色，儘管3月非農就業人數增加了228,000人，比預期的130,000人更強勁。然而，一月份和二月份的下調修正對這份報告的影響有所降低。

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的評論未能平息市場情緒，他表示對近期的市場波動似乎不太擔心。他承認關稅超出預期，這將對增長產生更大的阻力，但他也表示，FOMC將耐心等待更多的明確性後再對貨幣政策進行調整。

S&P 500的所有11個板塊都下跌超過2.5%，其中能源板塊跌幅最大，較前一天下降8.7%。其次表現最差的板塊是金融板塊(-7.4%)和科技板塊(-6.3%)。

年初至今：

* 道瓊斯工業平均指數 -9.9%* S&P 500 -13.7%* S&P 中型股400 -15.1%* 羅素2000 -18.1%* 納斯達克綜合指數 -19.3%

免責聲明：如前文所述，週一的市場暴跌可能更大，約為3%。

週五的經濟日曆：

* 3月非農就業人數：228K（預期130K）；前值從151K修正至117K

* 3月私營非農就業人數：209K（預期120K）；前值從140K修正至116K

* 3月平均時薪增長：0.3%（預期0.3%）；前值從0.3%修正至0.2%

* 3月失業率：4.2%（預期4.1%）；前值4.1%

* 3月平均工時：34.2（預期34.2）；前值從34.1修正至34.2

該報告的主要收獲是3月的正面結果受到1月和2月下調修正的影響，因此該報告不太可能改變美聯儲對當前勞動力市場狀況的看法。

展望週一，市場參與者將獲悉：

* 2月消費者信貸（預期151億美元；前值181億美元）週一下午3點（東部時間）公布。

能源市場方面，布倫特原油交易報63.80美元。油價大幅下跌。除了美國股市崩盤外，油價還受到了OPEC+決定每日增加40萬桶供應的壓力，這遠高於預測的16萬桶增幅。

結論：美國市場基準指數經歷了20%的暴跌。在重大危機中，股市通常是在經濟進入衰退之前的領先指標。例如2008年，股市在2007年10月開始下跌，但直到2008年3月才出現衰退。因此，到2025年第二季度，衰退是相當可能的。不過每次重大危機都有其自身的特點。在當前情況下，美國經濟依然穩健。這次股市崩跌主要是因特朗普及其團隊高風險關稅行動而人為造成的，不出意外的話，回應性關稅主要由中國徵收。然而，仍然有大幅取消和削減關稅的可能，這可能使市場重拾升勢。或者可能不會。無論如何，投資者的規律是不使用槓桿購買。當前的市場報價現在購買是絕佳的。不久的將來，這些價格將成為傳奇。因此，購買並持有S&P 500指數(SPX)。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jozef Kovach,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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