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08.04.202500:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元採用郊狼策略

如果有人打你的左臉,沒有必要求饒。有趣的是,根據白宮的說法,已有超過50個國家這樣做了。但中國不是其中之一。中國為太驕傲而不向美國請求關稅減免。它能自我照顧,報復措施已經到位,市場上越來越多的人在談論人民幣貶值,這使得歐元/美元來回波動。

北京已對美國進口商品徵收34%的關稅並限制稀土金屬的出口。根據彭博社的消息來源,中國政府正在討論如何支持其因美國關稅而受打擊的經濟。建議的措施包括促進消費、鼓勵出生率、補貼某些出口部門以及創建股票市場穩定基金。

然而,這些措施不太可能消除投資者的恐慌。在外匯市場上,有關人民幣貶值的討論越來越多,以使中國出口變得更便宜。儘管Mizuho Financial Group預測人民幣兌美元將下跌3%,但Wells Fargo預測將下降15%,而Jefferies預測將下降多達30%。貶值越嚴重,越有可能其他國家,包括歐洲,會跟進。這些預期導致歐元/美元價值下滑,推入負面領域。

隨後,歐元強勁反彈,由於投資者對美元的信心下降以及對美聯儲重大貨幣擴張的預期增加。衍生品市場不相信Jerome Powell的言論,即美聯儲沒有理由急於行動。他們只是略微降低了預期降息的次數,從五次減到了四次。

2025年美聯儲貨幣擴張的預計範圍
Exchange Rates 08.04.2025 analysis

有時,市場似乎拋棄了理性的行為。投資者情緒似乎被唐納德·川普的反復無常決策所左右。這位共和黨人敦促鮑威爾“不要玩政治遊戲”,並要求降息。他的言論對歐元/美元的影響比鮑威爾的謹慎聲明更大。

Exchange Rates 08.04.2025 analysis

市場陷入困境,投資者對信念感到不確定,導致主要貨幣對出現波動劇烈的波動。歐元/美元正愈來愈受地理因素影響。在歐洲交易時段,歐元區股票指數下跌使歐元承壓。接著到了美國交易時段,標普500指數重挫,給美元帶來壓力。

從技術分析上看,在歐元/美元的日線圖上,對於公允價值區間上限(1.076-1.100)的爭奪仍在進行。這一水平多次在多頭和空頭投資者間易手。交易者可能採用土狼策略:觀望,看看哪頭獅子失利,然後選擇站在贏家一邊。若匯率能夠持續保持在1.100 美元以上,則意味著買入信號——反之亦然。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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