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14.04.202512:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 2025年4月14日歐元/美元預測

週五,歐元/美元組合持續上漲,但在當日後半段有所回落。此次回落(即美元走強)是短暫的,到了週五尾聲,美元再度出現大幅下跌。目前的市場情況顯示,沒有任何因素可以阻止美元每日持續下降。市場的資訊背景太強大,促使交易者無法在中途停下。同時,週末期間,特朗普並沒有發出新的激進信號,這可能導致交易活動降低。

Exchange Rates 14.04.2025 analysis

最後完成的下跌波未能跌破前一低點,而新的上升波突破了先前的高點。這目前表明上漲趨勢的延續。唐納德·特朗普繼續推出新的進口關稅,而市場仍然被恐慌和混亂所包裹。多頭上週重新進入市場,這是有明確且合乎邏輯的原因的。

星期五的新聞背景比前幾天要弱得多。當然,特朗普將中國商品的關稅提高到了不可思議的145%,而中國則回應提高自己的關稅至125%。然而,這些數字似乎可能標誌著上限。任何進一步的增加都會顯得荒唐或可笑,缺乏實際意義。我個人相信,雙方最終將坐下來談判。唯一的問題是何時談判。如果特朗普本週不再提高對中國的關稅,美元可能會得到一些暫時的喘息。

記住,特朗普現在只能對中國加徵新關稅,因為他已經對其他所有國家給予了90天的緩衝期。所以,本週美元可能會有所改善。但美中貿易戰這樣重大的事件,市場已完全定價的可能性並不大。

Exchange Rates 14.04.2025 analysis

在4小時圖上,該貨幣對持續上升至127.2%的斐波那契修正水平1.1495。貿易戰,從全面意義上來說,才剛剛開始。因此,我無法僅根據當前的數據預測該貨幣對的升跌走勢。市場走勢將完全取決於新聞背景,本週這些新聞可能會穩定地持續流入。看漲趨勢保持不變。如果從1.1495水平回落,將暗示可能會發生反轉,有利於美元貨幣,並引發溫和的下跌。

交易者承諾(COT)報告:

Exchange Rates 14.04.2025 analysis

在最近一週的報告中,專業交易者開立了7,049個多頭倉位並關閉了1,096個空頭倉位。非商業團體的情緒最近再次看漲——這要歸功於唐納德·特朗普。投機者目前持有的總多頭倉位達到190,000,而總空頭倉位為130,000。

連續20週,大型玩家一直在減少歐元頭寸,但過去9週來,他們開始減少空頭倉位並增加多頭倉位。歐洲央行和美聯儲的貨幣政策差異仍然支撐著美元,但特朗普的政策對交易者來說現在是一個更具影響力的因素。他的行動可能會驅使美聯儲更趨向於鴿派立場,並可能引發美國經濟衰退。

美國和歐元區新聞日曆:

4月14日,經濟日曆上沒有重要事件。因此,除非週末有新的關稅公告,否則周一的新聞背景對市場情緒的影響可能會很小。目前,此類頭條新聞仍然是市場的主要驅動因素。

歐元/美元預測和交易建議:

今天對於該貨幣對的買賣機會應該只在小時圖的關鍵水平附近有明確信號時才考慮。然而,我想再次強調,價格走勢主要將取決於新聞背景,而不是技術佈局。

Fibonacci水平在小時圖上從1.0957到1.0733繪製,4小時圖上從1.1214到1.0179繪製。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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