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15.04.202511:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美國市場處於十字路口：上漲或下跌？

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

4月15日概覽

美國市場處於十字路口：上升還是下降？

週一美國主要指數：道瓊斯 +0.8%，納斯達克 +0.6%，S&P 500 +0.8%，S&P 500：5,405，交易區間：5,100–5,800。

股票以正面姿態開啟本週交易。

早晨的動力推動S&P 500上升1.8%，但該指數最終僅以高出上週五0.8%收盤，因為中午時段跌入負值區域後從當日低點反彈。

投資者的熱情最初因為智能手機、筆記本電腦、半導體、太陽能面板和其他電子產品不受10%全球關稅和中國商品125%進口稅的影響而得到提振。然後，會議的後半段在交易商消化現實過程中失去了動力：對中國進口商品的20%芬太尼相關關稅仍然有效。

進一步的市場動盪來自商務部長Howard Lutnick澄清豁免是暫時的，和特朗普總統表示將很快宣布半導體的新關稅稅率。

超大市值股票的日內波動同樣助長了市場的波動。NVIDIA (NVDA 110.71, -0.22, -0.2%)表現突出，日內交投一度高達+3.0%，然後跌至-1.7%回落至當日低點。

十一個S&P 500板塊中有十個以獲利收盤。七個高於1.0%，且金融板塊受Goldman Sachs (GS 503.98, +9.54, +1.9%)季度收益的正面反應所支持。

受利率影響的行業如房地產(+2.2%)和公用事業(+1.8%)領漲，因美國國債收益率回落。

10年期收益率下降了13個基點至4.36%，而2年期收益率下降了12個基點至3.83%。

週一的宏觀經濟日曆沒有美國重大報告。

本週的日曆安排顯示，週三將公佈3月零售銷售隨後是週四的3月房屋開工和建築許可。

週四，歐洲央行將舉行會議，預計將宣布下調25個基點的利率。

今年迄今為止表現：

道瓊斯工業平均指數：-4.8%S&P 500：-8.1%S&P中型股400：-11.7%納斯達克綜合指數：-12.8%羅素2000：-15.7%

展望週二，市場參與者將關注：

8:30 ET：4月帝國製造業指數（預期 -14.8；此前 -20.0），3月出口價格（此前 0.1%），不包括農業的出口價格（此前 0.1%），進口價格（此前 0.4%）和剔除石油的進口價格（此前 0.3%）

能源：布倫特原油目前交易於每桶65.20美元。油價嘗試鞏固在65美元以上，這是因美國市場稍微平靜下來。

結論：自4月2日特朗普推出一系列懲罰性關稅以來，全球貿易動蕩不安，而美國市場正在逐步恢復其立足點。儘管特朗普部分退讓——對大多數國家90天的關稅暫停及對電子商品的暫時關稅豁免，基準的10%關稅仍然存在。而且，美國與中國的貿易關係依然陷入僵局，雙方幾乎處於互相封禁的關稅水平。目前沒有談判的跡象，雙方都在等待對方先退讓。此情境幾乎肯定會在短期內引發通脹飆升，美中兩國經濟痛苦將不斷逼近。多位美國知名商業領袖和經濟學家警告潛在的美國經濟衰退。

這就是為什麼我們認為美國市場目前不是在上升，而是在一個範圍內盤整。如果目前的上漲趨勢持續，明智之舉是鎖定利潤。然而，如果回調發生——特別是在S&P 500這樣的基準指數中——我們建議採取多頭策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jozef Kovach,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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