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15.04.202511:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 2025年4月15日的GBP/USD預測

在小時圖中，GBP/USD 對在週一持續上升並在 1.3139 級別以上確定了位置。因此，上升趨勢可能會繼續朝著下一個斐波那契修正級別 161.8% - 1.3249 推進。從這個級別反彈將有利於美元，並導致下降至 1.3139。收盤價在 1.3249 以上將增加進一步增長至下一級別 1.3357 的可能性。

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

最後完成的下行波動突破了前一低點，新的上升波動又突破了最後一個高點。正如我所預期的，"看跌"的趨勢從未實現。市場情緒仍接近恐慌水平，導致頻繁的波動，使得目前的技術圖片難以清晰解讀。然而，Donald Trump和他的政策仍然在迫使看空者離開市場。

星期一没有什麼值得注意的新聞背景，除了Trump的新關稅宣布。這引發了一個新的看漲波動和美元再次下跌。今晨，英國發布了有關失業和工資的報告，交易員基本上忽略了。首先，市場仍然全力關注貿易戰。其次，數據平淡無奇且毫無靈感。失業率如預期的一樣保持在4.4％。平均工資增長5.6％，略低於預測。失業人數增加了18.7K，僅低於預期。因此，英鎊有進一步上升的空間－即使沒有統計數據的幫助，它也如此。在過去的五天裡，英鎊已經增值了500個點。截至周二早上，我看不到任何趨勢反轉的跡象。

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

在四小時的圖表中，該對保持了一個看漲的趨勢。收盤價高於76.4%的費波納奇水平1.3118，允許繼續增長到100.0%的費波納奇水平1.3431。任何指標上都沒有出現新的分歧。很多事情仍然取決於唐納德·特朗普的貿易政策。我不期待美元在短期內有強烈的反彈——甚至都沒有任何圖形信號顯示這一點。

期貨交易者（COT）報告：

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

在上週報告期間，"Non-commercial"類別的情緒變得不那麼樂觀。投機者持有的多頭部位減少了13,253個，而空頭部位則增加了4,067個。市場中的空頭已經失去了優勢。多頭與空頭部位的差距現在已經達到18,000，優勢在多頭：92,000對74,000。

在我看來，英鎊仍有下滑空間，但最近的發展可能導致市場在長期內反轉。過去3個月，多頭部位從80,000增至92,000，而空頭部位從80,000降至74,000。更重要的是，在過去10週，多頭部位從59,000升至92,000，空頭部位從81,000降至74,000。

美國和英國的新聞行事曆：

  • 英國 – 失業率 (06:00 UTC)
  • 英國 – 失業保險金申請人數變化 (06:00 UTC)
  • 英國 – 平均收入變化 (06:00 UTC)

星期二的經濟行事曆包括三項已發表的重要數據，結果完全未引起人們的興趣。因此，新聞背景對交易者情緒的影響在剩餘時間內可能將不存在。與貿易戰有關的新聞將具有影響性—如果在這一天出現。

GBP/USD 預測和交易提示：

今天可能會在從1.3249級別反彈後出售該對，目標為小時圖上的1.3139。在1.2810以上收盤後，可能的購買目標為1.2865和1.2931—所有目標都已經達到。在1.3003以上收盤後，可以開設新的長期部位，目標為1.3139—此目標也已經達到並超出。新的多頭部位可以開設，目標為1.3249，並超過那個為1.3357。

Fibonacci級別：

  • 小時圖：1.2809–1.2100
  • 4小時圖：1.3431–1.2104

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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