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15.04.202518:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元：4月15日美國交易時段計劃（早盤交易分析）

在我的早間預測中，我強調了1.1377水平並計劃以此作為交易決策的依據。現在讓我們來看看5分鐘圖表，分析發生的情況。匯價上升後在接近1.1377水平出現假突破，這為賣出歐元提供了好的進場點位，並導致該貨幣對下跌了40個點。技術形態在當天的下半場沒有做出調整。

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

如何在 EUR/USD 上開立長期持倉：

來自德國和歐元區的 IFO 數據疲弱令交易者失望，且阻止了 EUR/USD 繼續增長。然而，並未出現大規模拋售，這表明仍有買家存在——只需時間走出新一波上升行情。下半天，我們將關注美國 Empire State 製造業指數和進口指數的數據。只有非常強勁的數據才有可能引發市場對美元的需求。

我將與上半天採取類似的行動。即便美國數據良好（雖不太可能），也會令歐元承壓。然而只有在 1.1299 支撐位出現虛假突破時，才會發出買入 EUR/USD 的信號，目標是延續看漲趨勢並重新測試早盤未能突破的 1.1377 水平。突破並從上方回測將確認新的長期進場，潛在移動目標為 1.1467，即全年高點。最終目標是 1.1562，我計劃在此獲利了結。

如果 EUR/USD 下跌且在 1.1299 附近未出現任何看漲行動，歐元的壓力將增大。在這種情況下，空頭可能會將匯價推低至 1.1237。只有在形成虛假突破後，我才會考慮長期持倉。我還將尋求在 1.1167 處反彈買入，目標是日內 30-35 點的調整。

如何在 EUR/USD 上開立短期持倉：

若美國數據令人失望且今天不預期有美聯儲官員的聲明，那麼在 1.1377 附近的虛假突破——如上所述——將足以重新進入短期倉位，目標為下跌至 1.1299 支撐位。突破並在該區域下方穩定將開啟通往 1.1237 的空間。最終目標是 1.1167，我計劃在此獲利了結。

如果 EUR/USD 在下半天再次上升，而空頭在 1.1377 附近無所作為——此處也是移動平均線聚集的位置——多頭可能會將匯價推回上週高點。在這種情況下，我將推遲賣出，直到測試下一個阻力位 1.1467 並僅在未能鞏固後進入短期倉位。如果即便在那裡也沒有回落，我將根據日內 30-35 點的調整尋求在 1.1562 處進入短倉。

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

4月8日的COT報告（交易者持倉報告）顯示，長倉頭寸增加，短倉頭寸減少。考慮到特朗普90天的關稅暫停，歐元恢復上升趨勢，這反映在長倉頭寸的增長。此外，歐元區通脹下降的基本面數據推動了歐元需求，因市場預期歐洲央行將採取更積極的措施來支持經濟。

根據COT報告，非商業長倉頭寸增加了7,049手至190,296手，而非商業短倉頭寸減少了1,096手至130,316手。結果，淨多頭頭寸擴大了2,466手。

Exchange Rates 15.04.2025 analysis

指標信號

移動平均線交易接近30期和50期移動平均線，顯示市場橫向盤整。

注意：作者指的是H1圖表的移動平均線，與傳統D1日線圖的移動平均線不同。

布林帶 如果下跌，1.1324附近的下軌將作為支撐。

指標描述：

  • 移動平均線 (MA)：平滑波動和雜訊以顯示趨勢。
    • 50期：圖表上的黃色線
    • 30期：圖表上的綠色線
  • MACD (移動平均收斂/發散)：
    • 快速EMA：12
    • 慢速EMA：26
    • 信號SMA：9
  • 布林帶：周期 – 20
  • 非商業交易者：像個人交易者、對沖基金和大型機構使用期貨市場進行投機的操作者。
  • 長期非商業頭寸：非商業交易者的未平長倉總數。
  • 短期非商業頭寸：非商業交易者的未平空倉總數。
  • 非商業頭寸淨額：非商業交易者持有的多頭和空頭頭寸之差。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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