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Fundamental analysis

16.04.202503:35 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD 概況 – 4月16日：英鎊勢不可擋

Exchange Rates 16.04.2025 analysis

週二，英鎊/美元貨幣對繼續上升。儘管這次漲勢不如上週的強勁，但英鎊依然穩步上升，幾乎沒有修正。週一和週二英鎊的顯著增長並無宏觀經濟基礎。週二英國發佈了一些有趣的報告，但英國數據不是支撐了英鎊，就是被交易者忽視了數月。

而這正是週二發生的情況。失業率保持不變，失業救濟申請數量僅略低於預期，工資數據幾乎完全符合預期。簡而言之，整批報告是中性的，根本不夠強勁以支持英鎊在歐洲時段再漲50個基點，而這是近幾個月其已上漲1000個基點的基礎上。

我們注意到，英鎊對美元的10美分增長不是由於其內在強勁。英國經濟仍舊困難重重，增長非常緩慢。最近，英國央行沒有發出鴿派信號（不像歐洲央行），但美聯儲也沒有急於降息。簡而言之，英國央行和美聯儲的貨幣政策立場幾乎相同，但只有英鎊在上漲。

我們認為，推動貨幣對上漲的主要驅動力是特朗普的關稅政策，或更準確地說，是美國的新貿易政策。其對世界其他地區的立場越趨強硬，美元面臨的壓力可能就越大。縱使貿易戰導致全球經濟放緩，只有美元在下跌。這並不奇怪，因為美國作為全球最大經濟體，需要承擔比歐盟或英國更高的標準。此外，交易者和投資者擔心這場貿易戰不會就此結束。

若美中無法達成貿易協議該怎麼辦？這將有效地中止世界最大兩個經濟體之間的貿易。不用說，中美公司將蒙受巨大損失，裁員並停止生產。中國將難以找到替代美國的新出口市場，因為它已經向全球市場供應大量商品。與此同時，美國消費者將失去獲得便宜中產品的途徑。價格將飆升，而不會有便宜的替代品。當然，可以通過第三國來繞過這些關稅，但特朗普似乎早有準備，對幾乎每個國家都加徵了關稅。目前沒有解壓的跡象，市場全盤責怪特朗普的貿易戰，並反映在美元上。

Exchange Rates 16.04.2025 analysis

在過去5個交易日中，英鎊/美元的平均波動率為139點，這被認為對此貨幣對是較高的。預計在4月16日星期三，該貨幣對的波動範圍在1.3082到1.3360之間。儘管日線圖上仍存在下降趨勢，但長期回歸通道呈上升走勢。CCI指標進入超買區，這表明將會有向下的修正，不過這一修正已經發生。

最近的支撐位：

S1 – 1.3184

S2 – 1.3062

S3 – 1.2939

最近的阻力位：

R1 – 1.3306

R2 – 1.3428

R3 – 1.3550

交易建議：

英鎊/美元的上升趨勢已恢復。我們仍然不建議做多，因為我們認為整個上升是一種日內時間框架內的修正，並且已經變得不合邏輯。然而，如果您根據純技術分析或基於"特朗普政策"交易，做多仍然是相關的，目標為1.3360和1.3428，因為價格仍然位於移動平均線之上。

空倉仍然具有吸引力，目標為1.2207和1.2146，因為這種看漲修正遲早會結束，除非長期下降趨勢在這之前結束。目前，由於特朗普經常宣布新的關稅或增加現有關稅，美元持續走弱。

圖示說明：

線性回歸通道有助於確定當前的趨勢。如果兩個通道對齊，意味著趨勢強勁。

移動平均線（設置：20,0，平滑）定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

Murray Levels作為運動和修正的目標水平。

波動率水平（紅線）表示根據當前的波動讀數，該貨幣對在接下來24小時內可能的價格範圍。

CCI指標：如果進入超賣區域（低於-250）或超買區域（高於+250），則表明趨勢即將往相反方向逆轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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