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The upward movement of the pair is of a medium-term impulsive nature, which makes it possible to hold some purchases that were open last week or earlier. However, it is worth noting that the pair goes beyond the average weekly course. When building a trading plan, it is necessary to take into account this fact, since the probability of a return to this zone increases to 90%. Selling from current marks is not recommended, as there is no formed reversal pattern. Once such a pattern is obtained, it is necessary to enter a short position in order to work in the direction of a return to the middle move.
In case of a downward movement on Thursday, the price stayed above the NKZ 1/2 1.3188-1.3169, which indicates a continuation of the upward impulse. Holding a part of the purchases makes sense, since the pair can still test the previous week's high.
An alternative model will be developed if the pair fails to overcome the previous week's high, and that one of the next US sessions will close below the level of 1.3169. This will allow you to search for sales in the medium term. The probability of the formation of a downward movement is high due to the pair going beyond the limits of the average weekly course.
Daily KZ - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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