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17.09.201901:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The ECB is confident that the slowdown is mainly due to external factors

Long-term review

Exchange Rates 17.09.2019 analysis

In anticipation of the important meeting of the European Central Bank, which will be held this week, special attention should be paid to the comments of bank officials. ECB chief economist Philip Lane noted that the incoming information signals a longer slowdown than previously expected, and added that the decline in the eurozone was due to purely external factors. However, the EUR/USD pair did not seem to pay any attention to Lane's comments and continued to decline, trading at 1.1035. According to the CFTC report, the volume of net long positions in dollars rose to the strongest level since March. According to Lane, "the ECB's primary focus on price stability is unconditional." In other words, the regulator will continue to do everything in order to raise inflation. First of all, use the reduction in rates - "a powerful and basic tool." At the same time, the ECB intends to create a "cushion" to protect the region's economy from "materializing negative risks". "We are confident that the estimated volume of purchases will correspond to the current parameters," Lane summed up.

Exchange Rates 17.09.2019 analysis

On the other hand, despite the fact that the markets also expect further Fed policy easing, as always, the dollar will be very sensitive to the general level of appetite for risky assets and the outflow of capital from emerging markets. Net short positions in euros rose even higher last week before the ECB meeting. GBP net short positions have risen, although they remain below their August highs. JPY net positions are returning to the positive zone for six consecutive weeks amid demand for safe assets. Thus, the market has already won back a possible Fed rate cut, and the dollar will not suffer in the future.

Irina Maksimova,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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