15.03.202312:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Lower inflation in the US calmed markets

The crisis in the US banking sector, in which Silicon Valley Bank and two smaller banks filed for bankruptcy, continues to affect financial markets. Investors are now doubting whether there will be further interest rate hikes as the situation could change radically.

There was also the US consumer inflation data for February, which market players focused on yesterday. The indicator in both monthly and yearly terms came out in line with expectations of 0.4% vs 0.5% and 6.0% vs 6.4%, respectively. This supported the US and European equity markets and boosted demand for Asia-Pacific securities today. On this wave, Treasury yields have recovered somewhat and the movement of federal funds rate futures shows a strong shift in expectations that the Fed could raise the rate by 0.25% at the end of next week's meeting, rather than the 0.50% expected more recently. The ratio of such sentiment shows 81.2% for 0.25% and 18.8% for 0.50%. In the forex market, there is a stabilization of dollar, with the ICE dollar index momentarily hitting 103.32.

Most likely, the rally will continue today if the upcoming data on producer prices come in line with expectations or turn out to be lower. Forecasts say it will show a decline of 0.3% m/m and 5.4% y/y. A report on retail sales is also ahead, and data similar to expectations will extend the increase in equities and return demand for commodities.

The stabilization in markets ahead of the Fed meeting will curb the continued weakening of dollar, which could negatively affect investors' interest in gold. The metal has previously been in demand precisely because of the potential chaos in the markets.

Forecasts for today:

WTI

Oil prices are gradually recovering, thanks to the stabilization in markets. A rise above 72.45 is likely to lead to a jump to $75.00 per barrel.

XAU/USD

Gold prices slipped below 1894.65. A consolidation under this level could lead to a further drop to 1870.00.