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The ECB, as expected, raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to the level of 4% and confirmed the possibility of further increases in July. However, the rate is still significantly below the inflation level, which stands at 6.1%. The inflation forecast for the current year is 5.4%, and for 2024 it is 3%. However, even by 2025, the ECB does not anticipate reaching the target inflation level, as the forecast stands at 2.2%. Overall, the regulator's decision was expected, but it sent a strong signal, resulting in a sharp rise of the euro.
The EUR/USD currency pair is in an upward cycle since the beginning of the week, with the exchange rate strengthening by more than 200 points. This movement led to the recovery of the euro's value after a recent decline in May.
The GBP/USD currency pair is also in an upward cycle and has risen in value by approximately 300 points since the start of the trading week. This movement led to the extension of the medium-term upward trend. It is important to note that such a significant price change has triggered a technical signal of overbought positions on the British pound.
Today, the release of final inflation data in the EU is expected, with a forecast for a slowdown from 7.0% to 6.1%. If the data aligns with the preliminary estimate, it is likely to be overlooked by market participants.
Time targeting:
EU Inflation – 09:00 UTC
Despite a clear technical signal of overbought conditions for the euro in the intraday period, the upward cycle continues in the market. As a result, it is possible to expect a movement at least to the 1.1000 level. However, the overbought condition will eventually manifest as a pullback, and traders should be prepared for it.
Currently, speculators are not paying proper attention to the overbought status, which is reflected in the sustained upward movement without significant pullbacks. However, it is important to understand that such a state cannot last indefinitely, and sooner or later, there will be a fixation of long positions, leading to a price pullback. In the current situation, traders will pay attention to the psychological level of 1.3000, which could become the main resistance for speculators.
The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future.
The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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