15.08.202309:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD shows surprising rise despite previous weakness

The US currency is again testing new highs, outpacing the euro. Not so long ago, the dollar seemed to have been weakened by a recession, but this was a wrong impression. The greenback flexed its muscles, solidifying its position against the euro, especially on the back of new macroeconomic data releases from the US.

USD was bolstered by the market's risk sentiments and anticipations of upcoming reports from the United States. On Tuesday, August 15, the US will publish the retail sales report. Preliminary estimates suggest a 0.4% rise in July.

On Wednesday, market players will assess the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting, which saw a rate hike of 25 basis points, taking the rate to an annual range of 5.25%–5.5%. Furthermore, Wednesday will also reveal the US industrial production volumes. Experts anticipate a 0.3% month-on-month increase.

Given the current circumstances, the US dollar feels robust and supported by the national economy. Many economists believe the greenback will continue to strengthen in the near term. However, there are alternative scenarios. While the short-term outlook for USD appears positive, the long-term forecast is potentially the opposite. According to HSBC analysts, recent economic reports hint at a "soft landing" being the most probable outcome for both the US and global economies. They anticipate a surge in risk appetite towards the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, which could weaken the dollar.

Economists at MUFG Bank also highlight the dollar's short-term positive prospects. They think that the stability of the US economy amidst strong inflation data offers substantial support to the dollar in the short-term planning horizon. Moreover, the yields on US government bonds might play a pivotal role in dragging the EUR/USD pair down.

On Monday, August 14, EUR/USD retreated to its August lows, plummeting to 1.9000. However, the pair later recovered after gaining momentum. By the end of the day, EUR/USD ascended to 1.0933 but soon slowed down its pace. It then oscillated within that range. On Tuesday morning, the instrument was hovering around 1.0922, trying to climb higher.

For a long time, the European currency remained stuck in the middle of its 2-month trading range. However, after data releases from Germany, the euro dipped, becoming less appealing to investors. According to recent reports, Germany's wholesale price index for July decreased by 0.2% compared to June and by 2.8% compared to the same period last year. The situation is gradually improving, but markets remain tense.

On Thursday, August 17, Europe's employment data and trade balance information will be released. Today's US retail sales report for July is pivotal for the EUR/USD pair. Specialists believe that it will determine the pair's future direction.

Analysts have noted that the dollar and euro's response to various macroeconomic data from the US has been mixed, encompassing both positive and negative reports. In this environment, market players and experts are bracing for surprises even as they hope for stabilization.

Preliminary forecasts suggest that US monetary authorities might need to hike interest rates again to combat inflation and high unemployment levels. Experts believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement phased economic stimulus measures.

An aspect worth special attention is the influence of the Chinese economy on both the US and global scenes. Many experts note the EUR/USD pair's sensitivity to yuan fluctuations. Previously, Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, pointed out the risks to the global economy posed by a slowdown in China's economic growth, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and adverse climate changes.

According to Yellen, a deceleration in China's growth could have "spillover effects for the US." Yet, neighboring Asian nations would bear the brunt, she added. The Treasury Secretary refrained from commenting on potential debt issues in China tied to delayed bond payments by the major realtor, Country Garden.

Currently, Yellen and the US Treasury have given positive short-term and long-term outlooks for the national economy. Nonetheless, she highlighted the lingering recession risk. Yellen insists, however, that the US economy "continues its steady growth, and the labor market remains very strong."