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Although retail sales data in the US exceeded expectations, positive sentiment previously observed in financial markets did not resume due to disappointing news from China. Reportedly, industrial production volume in the region fell from 4.4% to 3.7% y/y, while retail sales volume decreased from 3.1% to 2.5%. Capital investments also fell from 3.8% to 3.4%
China's data could become the basis for a wide-scale risk of falling into recession, so positive statistics from the US could not improve investor sentiment. The ongoing banking crisis also added negativity.
The report released recently indicated that retail sales in the US rose from 1.59% to 3.17% y/y, instead of increasing to just 1.50%. It also rose by 0.7% m/m, higher than the expected 0.4% and the 0.3% record from the previous month.
Today, inflation indicators in the UK came out, indicating the overall maintenance of inflationary pressure. The data suggests a high probability of the Bank of England continuing to raise rates, which, on the wave of a possible end to the US rate hike cycle, may support GBP/USD.
Employment and GDP data in the eurozone also lie ahead, and an increase in the quarterly GDP value from 0.0% to 0.3%, together with a decrease in employment, will indicate large-scale problems in the country's economy.
The minutes of the last FOMC meeting on monetary policy will highlight the future moves of the central bank, in which any hint of a continued rate hike will stimulate a correction in the US stock market, while notes of uncertainty will be perceived by market players as a signal that the Fed may stop raising borrowing costs.
Forecasts for today:
GBP/USD
The pair found support at the level of 1.2650. A rise beyond 1.2750, which will happen if today's UK data points to a continued rate hike by the Bank of England, will lead to further growth towards 1.2845.
WTI oil
Oil found support at 80.50. The price will rise to 85.00 if the data on US oil and petroleum product stocks turn out to be no higher than forecasted.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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