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Bitcoin begins 2024 by reaching a new local high above the $45k level. Recall that at the end of 2023, the cryptocurrency established a local high near the $44.9k mark, after which a correction began. As of January 1st, Bitcoin has made a bullish exit beyond the fluctuation range of $40.5k–$43.4k. The second day of the new year started with a bullish momentum for BTC, thanks to Asian markets.
The cryptocurrency continues its confident upward movement above $45k and has every chance to firmly establish itself above this psychological mark. The trend of increased growth in BTC/USD quotes may continue after the opening of the American trading session. Therefore, it is logical to assume that the $50k level will become the new major target for Bitcoin.
It's no secret that this week could decide the fate of several applications for the approval of a spot BTC-ETF. The deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve the first batch of applications is approaching, and according to Bloomberg reports, such approval is expected. Against this backdrop, there is a positive sentiment in the market after the opening of the trading session following the holidays, especially among large investors.
It is reported that institutional investors are opening long positions on BTC with a significant premium on the CME, which is a rare occurrence and indicates high interest from large capital in the asset. The last time "whales" opened positions with a significant premium, BTC/USD quotes increased by more than 25%. Glassnode also reports that on December 30th, investors withdrew more than 28,000 BTC ($1.1 billion) from cryptocurrency exchanges, which is the maximum for the year.
Such activity from large capital is undoubtedly linked to the upcoming approval of one or more BTC-ETF applications. The head of VanEck stated that the cryptocurrency market will become the most interesting segment for investment, and Bitcoin is awaiting a powerful bullish rally. At the same time, Goldman Sachs notes that the approval of a BTC-ETF could become a "sell the news" event. However, analysts are confident that the approval of BTC-ETFs will attract more institutional investors to the cryptocurrency space.
Bitcoin ended 2023 in a state of uncertainty due to the potential formation of several technical analysis figures—double top and triangle. As a result of a strong bullish impulse on the first and second of January, we witnessed the execution of the "triangle" figure. Bitcoin made an upward breakout of the $43.4k resistance level, and subsequently the $44.9k level. The "double top" figure lost its relevance, but there is still a possibility of forming a "triple top" pattern.
However, the chances of such a figure forming in this situation are minimal, as after a local consolidation within the range of $40.5k$–43.4k, an upward trend formed. Each subsequent low was higher than the previous one, indicating an increase in buying activity, and as a result, a minimal probability of forming a "triple top" pattern.
Bitcoin kicks off the new trading year powerfully, and events such as the approval of a spot BTC-ETF, the halving, and the reduction of Federal Reserve interest rates will allow the asset to update its all-time high. As for short-term targets, the final consolidation above $45k and creating a foundation for further growth will be the main objective for the bulls. A breakout and consolidation above $50k can be considered the main medium-term target for the bulls, which will become much more feasible after establishing a foundation at $45k.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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