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There are a few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday. In the Eurozone, a more or less significant report on retail sales will be published. In the UK, a secondary report on the Construction PMI will be published. In the US, a secondary report on jobless claims will be published. These reports are unlikely to provoke a market reaction of more than 10-20 points. The main focus today will be on Christine Lagarde's speech.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
Of the fundamental events on Thursday, we highlight the ECB meeting. However, there are practically no questions about the meeting itself and its results—it is well-known that with a high degree of probability, the European regulator will cut the key interest rate today. This has been known for several months. The real intrigue lies in ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech. Ms. Lagarde could make statements that might disappoint the market, which is currently focused only on buying euros. Conversely, she could also temper the enthusiasm of traders who buy euros under any circumstances. Therefore, today's key event is not the ECB meeting and its rate decision but Christine Lagarde's speech.
General Conclusions:
On the fourth trading day, you should focus on the ECB rate decision, the ECB's final communique, and Christine Lagarde's press conference. These events could trigger either a fall or another rise in the euro or even impact the pound sterling, though this does not always happen. However, both European currencies are still aimed at growth, so they could use any factor to appreciate more.
Main Trading System Rules:
What's on the Charts:
Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that only some trades will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over the long term.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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