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Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1358 within the downtrend channel formed on April 18. The pair is under bearish pressure. We believe the instrument has a long way to go to reach the bottom of the downtrend channel.
The euro is expected to rebound in the coming hours and reach 1.1429. On the H4 chart, it is technically reaching oversold levels. In view of this, we expect a recovery of the euro until it reaches the 21SMA or even the top of the bearish trend channel. Then, we can resume selling.
Should the euro pull back, it will be seen as a selling signal, with targets at 1.1358 and 1.1230. In the short term, we believe the euro could reach the psychological level of 1.10 around 5/8 Murray.
In March, the euro left a gap around 1.0362, and it could likely reach this area in the coming weeks. The key is to wait for the price to fall below the psychological level of 1.1000.
On the other hand, if the euro continues to rise, we should expect a breakout and consolidation above 1.1440. The bullish trend will then be confirmed, and EUR/USD could reach 1.15 and even 1.1580, and could eventually reach the 8/8 Murray around 1.1718.
Our trading plan for the coming hours is to wait for the euro to recover to resistance levels around 1.1429 or 1.1435 to sell, with targets up to 1.1230.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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