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At the end of the June meeting, the Federal Reserve took a hawkish stance. Policymakers continue to favor only one interest rate cut by the end of the current year. Accordingly, this supports the growth of US Treasury bond yields and is a key factor restraining the growth of the non-yielding yellow metal.
Nevertheless, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US raise hopes for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which, in turn, cannot help the US dollar move higher. Meanwhile, political uncertainty, a softer tone in the stock markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions support the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.
From a technical perspective, the recent inability to sustain momentum beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent decline in prices favor the bears. Considering that the oscillators on the daily chart are gaining negative momentum, this confirms a short-term negative outlook. Further selling below the horizontal support at $2285 could push the price of gold toward the 100-day SMA, which is currently near $2250. The downward trajectory may continue towards $2220 before the XAU/USD pair drops to the round level of $2200.
On the other hand, any attempt at recovery will face resistance near the breakout point of $2315. Sustained growth could trigger a short-covering rally but will remain capped by the 50-day SMA, which is currently around $2337. Further upward movement could lift the price of the yellow metal to the supply zone of $2369. Successfully passing this zone will nullify any negative scenario for the near term. The bulls could then aim for the round figure of $2400 and try to extend the rally
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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