03.07.202415:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Christine Lagarde's speech after the inflation report

The EUR/USD pair has been standing still in recent weeks. This is clearly visible on the higher charts, for example, on the 4-6 hour chart. The movement is horizontal, that is, sideways. And any sidewall can only mean two things. 1) At this time, bulls and bears are in balance. 2) Major players are accumulating positions for a potential strong move up or down. Let me remind you that on the 4-hour chart, the "bullish" trend was broken several weeks ago with a close below the ascending trendline. Thus, we should now expect a decline in the euro. Within a week or a few days, bulls may become active, as happened yesterday or the day before. This week, many important reports will be published, and speeches by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell will take place. Any event can support the bulls.

Today, I would like to focus on Christine Lagarde's speech. In my opinion, the importance lies not in the fact that the ECB president spoke but in the timing, as it came just a few hours after the publication of the June inflation report for the Eurozone. According to this report, inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 2.5% after rising to 2.6% the previous month. Core inflation remained at 2.9%, the same as the previous month.Thus, the consumer price index slowed, but only slightly, while the core index did not decrease at all. This has been the basis for cautious buying of the euro, as the key question is, "When will the ECB next ease monetary policy?" If inflation is falling too slowly, the ECB will have little reason to lower the rate. However, both inflation figures have been decreasing rather slowly over the past six months. Overall, inflation is already close to the ECB's target level, but it still needs to reach it and then stay there.The June inflation figures have caused Christine Lagarde to take a cautious stance. At the moment, there is no reason to expect ECB rate cuts next month or in September. New easing in September is possible, but the next inflation report must show a more significant slowdown.Lagarde's cautious stance is unlikely to support the bulls. Therefore, the horizontal channel for the euro should be maintained on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The bulls are exerting some pressure, but it is too weak.Conclusion:The trend for the EUR/USD pair has not turned bullish in recent days, even though we have already seen two signs of a bullish advance, according to wave analysis. However, I believe that breaking the peak of the last upward wave (from June 18) by a few points cannot be considered a "trend reversal." Today, I expect a new decline in the pair towards the level of 1.0676, but much will depend on the American statistics today.Thus, I still need to see what could cause the EUR/USD pair to break out of the current sideways movement. On Monday, it showed growth based on information about the elections in France, followed by a pullback. The ISM Manufacturing Index, which could have triggered a new rise in the pair, was not factored in by traders. The inflation report in the EU supported the euro, but only slightly. Christine Lagarde's speech was neutral, with her rhetoric not shifting towards a more dovish or hawkish stance. Above, there is an important resistance zone at 1.0785–1.0797, which the bulls will find difficult to break through on the first attempt.