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For the first time in four years, the Federal Reserve lowered its interest rates by a substantial 50 basis points. This move was driven not only by the steady slowdown in inflation but also by the U.S. central bank's concerns about the potential slide of the economy into a recession. However, what is truly surprising is the market's reaction— the dollar immediately started to rise significantly. The reason lies in the statements made by Jerome Powell. The head of the U.S. central bank promptly warned the markets not to expect the same pace of monetary policy easing to continue. According to him, the Federal Open Market Committee is considering cutting interest rates by another 50 bps by the end of this year, but this will happen gradually. With only two meetings left this year, this means 25 basis points at each meeting. However, everything will depend on macroeconomic dynamics. Given that the pace of inflation will surely slow down, there is a possibility that the central bank might only lower its interest rates once before the start of next year. This is precisely why the dollar began to strengthen, as the markets were expecting a more aggressive monetary policy easing.
Today, the focus shifts to the Bank of England, which will likely set the tone for further actions by key central banks. The British central bank is expected to keep its interest rates unchanged. In the context of the Fed starting to lower its rates, such a step by the BoE would provide momentum for the pound to rise. This, in turn, would also pull up the euro via the dollar index.
The EUR/USD pair, driven by a strong flow of news and information, shows increased volatility. During this period, the price almost reached the 1.1200 mark. The upward sentiment remains undeniable despite the previous trading day's closing near the opening level.
In the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the buyers' zone of 50/70, indicating a bullish sentiment.
Regarding the Alligator indicator in the same time frame, the moving average lines point upward, aligning with the current price movement.
Expectations and Prospects
For the next stage of growth, price stabilization above 1.1150 is necessary. Under this scenario, it is possible to see an update of the mid-term trend high, located around the 1.1200/1.1280 range.
Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods supports a sustained upward trend.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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