29.10.202408:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on October 29? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Two macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday. The first one, Germany's GFK Consumer Confidence Index, is barely worth mentioning, as it's a relatively minor report. The second report, however, holds more weight: the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data for September. A slight decrease is expected compared to August, but since U.S. unemployment fell in September, the actual JOLTs figure could surpass expectations. This is the only report today that might influence market sentiment.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No notable fundamental events are expected on Tuesday. No new speeches from European Central Bank representatives are scheduled, though they're not particularly necessary now, as the next ECB meeting is still five weeks away. No comments from Federal Reserve officials are planned either, as the central bank's meeting on November 6-7 is approaching, during which officials are restricted from discussing monetary policy.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, the British pound might attempt to resume its decline, while the euro may continue to rise. In reality, these currencies will unlikely move in opposite directions today, with only the JOLTs report potentially influencing their direction. Therefore, it may be more prudent to wait for buy or sell signals to form on both currency pairs, aligning in the same direction rather than opposing each other.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
7. After the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.