13.11.202414:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

For the fourth consecutive day, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a bearish bias, hovering slightly above its lowest level since November 2023. The decline is driven by several factors, including a strong US dollar, which remains near multi-month highs amid expectations of robust economic growth under the current administration—a key factor pressuring the currency pair.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that inflation remains manageable but that the path forward is uncertain. He highlighted the importance of core inflation data in determining whether inflation is above the central bank's 2% target. Similarly, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that a rise in inflation just a week before the December FOMC meeting could prompt the central bank to pause rate cuts. This underscores the significance of today's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

Additionally, a softer risk tone supports the US dollar's safe-haven status. Concerns about China's weak fiscal stimulus measures, the potential global economic impact of trade tensions, and the collapse of Germany's ruling coalition—all contribute to market uncertainty. This weighs on the euro, exacerbating the EUR/USD pair's decline.

From a fundamental perspective, for EUR/USD spot prices, the path of least resistance remains downward, reinforcing expectations for further declines initiated after the US elections.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is nearing oversold territory. Coupled with the pair's inability to break and hold below the psychological 1.0600 level, caution is warranted for bears. A prudent approach would be to wait for short-term consolidation or a modest rebound before preparing for further losses.

Any attempts to rise above the immediate resistance at 1.0625–1.0630 are likely to face barriers near the previous session's high around 1.0665. Further buying could push the pair towards the round 1.0700 level. However, any move beyond this point would likely present a selling opportunity, capped around the $1.0770 level.

Conversely, sustained weakness below the psychological 1.0600 level could drag the EUR/USD pair to intermediate support at 1.0565–1.0560 to the critical 1.0500 psychological level. Additional selling pressure could accelerate the decline, potentially challenging the annual low from 2023.