18.11.202400:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on November 18? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

Macro-Economic Report Analysis:

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. However, on Friday, the euro failed to break above the 1.0596 level, while the pound remained below 1.2613. As a result, the decline of both currency pairs may continue on Monday, even without any relevant reports from the US, EU, or UK.

Fundamental Event Analysis:

Key fundamental events on Monday include speeches by European Central Bank representatives Luis de Guindos, Philip Lane, and Christine Lagarde. We do not expect these ECB officials to provide the market with significant new information, let alone support the euro. The ECB maintains a dovish stance while the market remains focused on buying the US dollar. Consequently, we believe the rise of the US dollar will continue sooner or later. While a few days of consolidation (flat trading) may occur early in the week, this scenario also seems unlikely.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue declining as the market primarily focuses on buying the US dollar. Powell's Thursday speech reinforced the dollar, and Friday's macroeconomic data further supported its rise. Although another attempt at correction is possible, neither the euro nor the pound currently shows any inclination to rally.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time it takes for a signal to form (bounce or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals are generated near a level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may produce numerous false signals or none at all. In such cases, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of consolidation.
4. Trades should be opened during the European session through the middle of the American session. All trades should be manually closed thereafter.
5. On the hourly timeframe, trades based on MACD signals should only be executed during periods of strong volatility and trends confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. If two levels are very close (5–20 points apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
7. After a 15–20 point movement in the correct direction, set a Stop Loss at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Targets for opening buy or sell orders. These are ideal points for setting Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: Trendlines or channels reflecting the current trend direction and indicating the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line serving as auxiliary indicators and sources of signals.

Key News Events and Reports: Always listed in the economic calendar, these can significantly impact currency pair movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during such events to avoid sharp price reversals.

Every trade cannot be profitable. The key to long-term success in Forex trading lies in developing a clear strategy and effective money management.