20.11.202416:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen continues its steady intraday decline against the US dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a new weekly high. This occurs amid uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest rate hike.

Additionally, recovering yields on US Treasury bonds are boosting the US dollar, further contributing to the outflow of funds from the lower-yielding Japanese currency. Moreover, the generally positive risk sentiment undermines the yen's position as a safe-haven currency.

All fundamental factors suggest that the USD/JPY pair favors an upward trajectory. However, the possibility of intervention may limit the Japanese yen's losses ahead of speeches by influential FOMC members.

From a technical perspective, the strong overnight rebound of the USD/JPY pair indicates that the recent corrective decline from the multi-month high has run its course. Furthermore, the continued rise in the exchange rate, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, supports the outlook for further dollar strength in this pair. The sustained price strength and a move above the key level of 155.00 confirm the positive forecast for the currency pair. Prices may then rise to the intermediate resistance at 155.70 en route to the psychological level of 156.00. Momentum could extend further, retesting the multi-month high in the area of 156.75.

On the other hand, a drop below the key level of 155.00 would encounter strong support in the area of 154.40–154.35 before the next key level at 154.00. Following that is the minimum of yesterday's session, with minor consolidation in the 153.85 level. Below that, the psychological level at 153.00 and subsequent support at 152.60 come into play. Failure to defend these support levels could lead the USD/JPY pair to decline toward the critical 200-day simple moving average (SMA).