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The test of the 1.2575 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. Shortly thereafter, the second test of this level occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing for selling the pound in line with the downtrend. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips, which was the movement's extent.
The pound plunged on Friday following weak PMI data, and the pair may remain under pressure today. Without fresh data, the financial community will focus on upcoming statements from high-profile representatives of the Bank of England. Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli is expected to address the country's current economic situation and provide comments on Friday's data. Her remarks could become a determining factor for today's market direction.
Swati Dhingra, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, will also share her views on the economic situation. Her insights on how global challenges might affect the UK economy will attract significant interest from analysts and investors. Key topics will likely include the impact of escalating geopolitical risks and changes in international trade on the UK's domestic economy.
Thus, these speeches could substantially influence the British pound, especially amid the prevailing uncertainty. Regarding intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point at around 1.2607 (green line on the chart) is reached, with the target being the 1.2641 level (a thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2641, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pound today can be expected after dovish comments from policymakers. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2584 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.2607 and 1.2641 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2584 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2545 level, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The pound can be sold, but it's better to do so as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2607 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.2584 and 1.2545 can be expected.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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