25.11.202412:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

Today, the Japanese yen is losing ground, despite the fact that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has left the possibility of raising interest rates on the table. However, political uncertainty in Japan might hinder the central bank's ability to tighten monetary policy further.

From the U.S. dollar's perspective, expectations about the inflationary policies of the administration are providing support to the dollar. Meanwhile, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has decreased. This development adds further support to the USD/JPY pair. At the same time, fears of market intervention and a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields are discouraging traders from taking aggressive short positions on the yen. Therefore, before anticipating further growth in the pair, it would be prudent to wait for sustained buying momentum.

From a technical standpoint, during the Asian session, the pair broke through the key round level of 154.00 and the intermediate resistance at 154.40, heading toward the psychological level of 155.00. The USD/JPY pair now appears poised to break through this level, especially since the oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory.

However, throughout the day, it would be premature to declare a definitive upward trend for the USD/JPY pair unless the price breaks above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart.

On the other hand, the round level of 154.00 now serves as significant support. If the pair falls below this level, it may find support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-September decline. Further below, the round level of 153.00 marks the next critical threshold. A drop below this level would shift market sentiment in favor of the bears.