03.12.202413:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. December 3rd. The Pound Remains Indecisive

The wave structure remains clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the current upward wave has breached the prior peak. This indicates a potential end or temporary pause in the bearish trend. However, as long as bears maintain control of the 1.2709–1.2734 zone, they retain a market advantage. Long-term prospects for a pound decline remain likely.

Monday brought no significant news for the pound, yet it traded mostly lower throughout the day. Bears gained concrete reasons to extend their attacks in the afternoon but faltered near the 1.2611–1.2620 support zone. The current movement shows traders' indecision regarding strategies for the week ahead.

This week, key US economic reports will likely influence the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) final monetary policy decision of the year. While a 0.25% rate cut seems likely, reports on unemployment, labor market conditions, job openings, and business activity could shape market sentiment. As such, the dollar might see both gains and losses depending on the data outcomes.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 1.2620 level, but two bearish divergences appeared on the Commodity Channel Index (CCI). A rebound from the 1.2728 level increases the likelihood of a reversal favoring the US dollar.

On the hourly chart, the pair also rebounded from a key resistance zone. The potential for further pound declines should not be ruled out.

The sentiment among Non-commercial traders became less bullish last week:

• Long positions held by speculators decreased by 18,279 positions.
• Short positions decreased by 2,544 positions.

Despite this, bulls maintain a solid advantage. The gap stands at approximately 40,000 positions: 102,000 longs versus 61,000 shorts.

I believe the pound still faces the likelihood of further declines. COT reports increasingly point to strengthening bearish positions almost every week. Over the past three months, long positions have decreased from 102,000 to 101,000, while short positions have risen from 55,000 to 62,000. I expect professional players to continue reducing longs or increasing shorts as most positive factors for the pound have already been priced in. Chart analysis also supports a downward trajectory for the pound.

Economic Calendar for the US and UKUS – JOLTS Job Openings (15:00 UTC)Tuesday's economic calendar contains only one significant event. The news is expected to have a moderate impact on trader sentiment.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

• Selling opportunities were available following a rebound from the 1.2709–1.2734 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2611–1.2620. This target was reached yesterday.
• Buying opportunities could have been considered if the hourly chart closed above 1.2611–1.2620, targeting 1.2709. This target was also achieved.
• Today, buying upon a rebound from the 1.2611–1.2620 zone could result in a retest of 1.2709.

Fibonacci Levels

• Hourly chart: Levels are drawn between 1.3000–1.3432.
• 4-hour chart: Levels are drawn between 1.2299–1.3432.

Traders should monitor key zones closely and adjust strategies based on US economic reports and technical signals.