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The test of the 1.2731 level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound and missed a rather substantial downward movement. Purchases on the rebound at 1.2686 yielded around 20 pips of profit.
Today, the GBP/USD pair situation may worsen due to several economic indicators related to GDP growth in the UK. It is expected that changes in GDP will fall short of optimistic forecasts, exacerbating the already existing problems in the country's economy. Following a series of negative news on inflation and consumer spending, any indicators pointing to slower economic growth could lead to additional sell-offs in the British currency. A decline in industrial production is also expected as this sector faces numerous challenges. Furthermore, the trade balance for goods may also show a discouraging picture. An increase in the deficit in this area will highlight the UK's dependency on imports, reducing the competitiveness of local manufacturers. All these factors create challenging conditions for GBP/USD growth.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.2674 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2703 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.2703, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 pips away from the level. Counting on the pound's growth today is reasonable only after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2653 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2674 and 1.2703 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2653 level (red line on the chart), which will likely trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2623, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 pips away from the level. Selling the pound is possible, but it's better to do so from as high a position as possible. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2674 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2653 and 1.2623 can be expected.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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