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The price of 157.48 was tested when the MACD indicator rose significantly above the zero mark, which I believe limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I chose not to buy the dollar.
Today's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data demonstrated substantial growth, indicating positive shifts in the country's economy. The year-over-year increase in the index surprised traders, who had expected more moderate figures. This development suggests that Japan's economy may be gaining stability despite global economic fluctuations. Additionally, Japan's unemployment rate remained low at just 2.5%, which boosts confidence in the country's future economic prospects and confirms positive labor market trends. Traders view such data as a potential signal for an interest rate hike, which would also support the yen's strength.
However, given the strong trend of yen weakening towards the end of this year, expectations should remain moderate. For my intraday strategy, I plan to focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for trading opportunities.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 157.90 (green line on the chart) with a target of 158.21 (thicker green line on the chart). At 158.21, I plan to exit the buy position and open a sell position in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35 pip movement downward from the level). Focusing on the pair's growth and buying during corrections is best. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.68 price, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposing levels of 157.90 and 158.21.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 157.68 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.37, where I plan to exit the sell position and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 pip upward movement from the level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to persist today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.90 price, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. The decline can be expected toward the opposing levels of 157.68 and 157.37.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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