09.01.202508:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on January 9? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Thursday has relatively few scheduled macroeconomic events, and none of them are particularly significant. In Germany, a report on industrial production will be released in the morning, followed later by a report on retail sales in the Eurozone. The decline in the euro observed yesterday may have been influenced by the secondary report on retail sales in Germany, while Monday's sharp rise was likely affected by the inflation report from Germany. As a result, today's two reports could potentially impact the euro's movements, whether upward or downward. However, we believe that the recent decline in both the euro and the pound—along with Monday's rise—was more driven by technical factors rather than macroeconomic ones. In the U.S., the economic calendar for today is completely empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Thursday, Federal Reserve representatives Thomas Barkin, Patrick Harker, and Michelle Bowman are scheduled to speak. However, it is unlikely that they will make any significant comments at this time. In recent weeks, there have been few important reports in the U.S., and new data will be needed to change the Fed's stance. After the reports on Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate are released on Friday, we may expect new statements if those reports provide noteworthy or unexpected results.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, traders should anticipate a further decline in both the euro and the pound. Recently, both currencies attempted to rally, but their efforts were hindered by the inflation report from the Eurozone and strong ISM and JOLTS reports from the U.S. However, due to today's weak macroeconomic calendar, a mild flat trend throughout the day cannot be ruled out.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time it takes for a signal to form (bounce or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals are generated near a level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may produce numerous false signals or none at all. In such cases, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of consolidation.
4. Trades should be opened during the European session through the middle of the American session. All trades should be manually closed thereafter.
5. On the hourly timeframe, trades based on MACD signals should only be executed during periods of strong volatility and trends confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. If two levels are very close (5–20 pips apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
7. After a 15–20 pip movement in the correct direction, set a Stop Loss at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Targets for opening buy or sell orders. These are ideal points for setting Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: Trendlines or channels reflecting the current trend direction and indicating the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line serving as auxiliary indicators and sources of signals.

Key News Events and Reports: Always listed in the economic calendar, these can significantly impact currency pair movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during such events to avoid sharp price reversals.

Every trade cannot be profitable. The key to long-term success in Forex trading lies in developing a clear strategy and effective money management.