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The test of the 155.76 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 40 pips.
Discussions surrounding Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's intention to raise interest rates to their highest level since 2008 continue to fuel demand for the yen. This comes after a relatively calm reaction from global financial markets to U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House. However, the U.S. dollar is not ready to relinquish its position, as the pair remains within a horizontal channel at the time of this analysis. The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates could significantly impact the country's economic landscape, which is crucial for both domestic and international markets.
Interest rate changes are always a significant topic for investors and analysts. Raising rates to their highest level since 2008 may indicate the BOJ's efforts to ease inflationary pressures and stimulate economic growth. This development is particularly relevant in light of recent changes in the global economy. Donald Trump's return to the White House introduces uncertainty and raises questions about the future of U.S. foreign economic policy. Financial market reactions already suggest adjustments in response to this shift.
For intraday strategies, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 156.06 (green line on the chart) with a target of 156.76 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.76, I plan to exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30-35 pips in the reverse direction from the level). Exercise caution with purchases, as pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 155.67 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 156.06 and 156.76 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below 155.67 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.08, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from the level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.06 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 155.67 and 155.08 can be expected.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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