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During the second half of the day, the price level of 1.531 was tested, coinciding with the MACD indicator remaining in the overbought zone for an extended period before beginning to decline. Additionally, the euro was trading above last week's high. This prompted me to decide to sell the pair, resulting in a movement towards the 1.0491 area.
Statements made by Trump yesterday regarding the potential imposition of tariffs on imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals renewed pressure on risk assets. If these measures are implemented, they could significantly alter global trade dynamics. Economists are already closely monitoring the potential impacts on semiconductor supplies, which are essential for the tech sector. Increased tariffs could lead to higher prices for end products and a slowdown in high-tech industries both in the U.S. and internationally. Moreover, imposing tariffs on pharmaceuticals could pose additional challenges for companies that rely on importing active ingredients, potentially affecting drug prices and the availability of healthcare services for Americans. A sharp strengthening of the dollar could also make U.S. goods more expensive in international markets, which might reduce demand for exports.
Today, there are no major economic data releases from the eurozone, which is likely to keep market participants in a state of uncertainty. This situation may add additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair, potentially leading to further declines in its value. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's meeting starts today, and unless there are significant changes in the central bank's economic policy towards easing, demand for the euro is unlikely to rebound.
For my intraday strategies, I plan to focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the price level of 1.0458 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.0514 level. At 1.0514, I plan to exit the market and initiate a sell trade, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. However, expecting a euro rise during the day's first half seems unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0433 price level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0458 and 1.0514 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Selling the euro is planned after reaching the 1.0433 level (red line). The target will be the 1.0387 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0458 price level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0433 and 1.0387 can be expected.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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