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The test of the 154.35 price level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to rise from the zero mark, confirming an optimal entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the price increased by approximately 30 pips.
During the Asian session, the yen continued to decline following Trump's recent statements regarding trade tariffs he plans to impose on several countries. Surprisingly, news of a rise in the Bank of Japan's core consumer price index did not strengthen the yen, with the USD/JPY pair maintaining its upward trend. This suggests that Trump's trade policies have a significant impact on the currency market, putting the Japanese yen in a challenging position. Despite the positive data on core consumer price index growth, investors remain hesitant to buy the yen, reflecting their uncertainty about the stability of the Japanese economy. Many attribute this caution to global economic risks, primarily driven by escalating trade tensions. Furthermore, the introduction of new tariffs could pose additional challenges for Japanese exports to the U.S., negatively affecting demand for the yen. However, the BOJ's policy remains crucial, and any comments from its representatives regarding potential rate hikes could help restore demand for the yen.
For my intraday strategies, I plan to focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 155.96 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.90 (thicker green line). Around 156.90, I plan to exit buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30–35 pips in the opposite direction). It's best to return to buying the pair on pullbacks and significant USD/JPY declines. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price level of 155.42 is tested twice consecutively, provided that the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 155.96 and 156.90.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 155.42 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.52 level, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20–25 pips in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price level of 155.96 is tested twice consecutively, provided that the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 155.42 and 154.52.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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