04.02.202507:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on February 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday. Yesterday illustrated how the U.S. president can create turbulence in the currency market, and we're not convinced that this turbulence has subsided. Both currency pairs fell at the market open yesterday but then recovered throughout the day. Interestingly, the macroeconomic conditions during the day supported not only the euro. While inflation in the EU increased, which is a positive sign for the euro, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI also rose, yet we did not see a corresponding increase in the dollar's value. As a result, today's ADP report on private sector employment changes is likely to have minimal impact on the movement of both currency pairs.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Tuesday, key events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic. It is expected that members of the Fed's monetary committee will address the actions of the U.S. president, particularly regarding their potential impacts on inflation and the economy. However, what can they comment on now that Trump has already "frozen" the tariffs against Mexico and Canada? Additionally, there is a possibility that Beijing may soon reach an agreement with Washington, which would leave the situation unchanged.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, market movements can be quite unpredictable. Novice traders should concentrate on technical factors today, as there are few macroeconomic events scheduled and uncertainty remains from Monday's developments. As a result, we may experience price actions that are challenging to forecast or even explain afterward.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.