17.02.202507:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on February 17? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. Last week, both the euro and the pound experienced significant growth, despite the absence of a strong macroeconomic or fundamental backdrop. While there were some positive reports for both currencies, there were also factors supporting dollar strength. Nonetheless, throughout the week, only the euro and the pound showed upward movement. Both currency pairs are maintaining an upward trend, as reflected in their respective trendlines.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Monday, the notable fundamental events include a speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, along with remarks from Federal Reserve representatives Patrick Harker, Michelle Bowman, and Jonathan Waller. However, none of these speeches are anticipated to be particularly impactful. Last week, the market largely overlooked Chair Jerome Powell's more critical statements, suggesting that whatever the Fed policymakers say today is unlikely to sway market sentiment. Nagel's speech is expected to address Trump's tariff policies and the EU's necessary response. The monetary policy positions of both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed are already well understood, so it is improbable that either central bank will introduce any new or significant information to the market at this time.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, market movements may be quite weak. Current market conditions remain volatile and erratic, so we should not expect logical price action. After five consecutive days of appreciation for the euro and pound, we may see a decline beginning today. Corrections in the market are typically complex structures that involve frequent pullbacks and internal retracements. It's unlikely that volatility will be high on Monday.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.