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On Friday, the GBP/USD pair showed extremely low volatility, yet the British pound steadily crept upward even with such market conditions. In fact, over the past week, the price only declined on Wednesday—and even then, only during the second half of the day. As a reminder, Wednesday saw the release of the UK inflation report, which has fueled expectations of a potential rate cut by the Bank of England at its next meeting. However, as we can see, this factor had only a short-lived negative effect on the pound. On all other days, the pound steadily appreciated, even though Trump did not introduce any new trade tariffs.
On the 5-minute timeframe, Friday's movement was mostly sideways and weak due to Good Friday celebrations. The total daily volatility was just 41 pips. Entering the market with such low activity didn't make much sense. Throughout the day, the price ignored the only key level in its path—1.3272.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has long been in a position to begin a downtrend, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, which is why the pound keeps slowly pushing higher. As a result, the pair's future movements still depend entirely on the U.S. president and his decisions and nothing else.
On Monday, GBP/USD may continue trading higher despite no valid reasons. Trump isn't rushing to impose new tariffs, UK inflation is falling, and the British economy remains weak. Nonetheless, traders seem uninterested in any of this for now.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade based on the following levels: 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3428–1.3440. No notable events are scheduled for Monday in the U.S. or the UK. Volatility is unlikely to be high today, but the pound may continue its upward movement.
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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