30.08.201910:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Sterling downside limited, fade EUR/GBP gains

There will be choppy sterling trading on Friday given the impact of month-end positioning with higher volatility into the afternoon London fix. EUR/GBP is trading at around 0.9070 with GBP/USD at 1.2170.

Political factors will remain extremely important with the UK parliament returning from recess on Tuesday.

Tensions will remain extremely high given the government move to suspend parliament from around September 10^th until October 14^th. This suspension will put very strong pressure on MPs opposed to any 'no-deal' Brexit to take action very quickly next week.

When the House of Commons returns next week there will be a rapid move from opposition lawmakers to avoid the scenario of any EU exit without a deal.

The UK government has announced that negotiations with the EU will be stepped up during September with twice-weekly meetings between the two sides. Any hint of a compromise would trigger sharp sterling's gains.

CFTC data will need to be watched very closely late in the US trading on Friday. Short positions remain close to 29-month highs at over 90,000 contracts, maintaining the potential for aggressive short-term covering. This potential will intensify if there is no significant decline in shorts for the latest reporting week.

The sterling has proved relatively resilient since the suspension announcement with GBP/USD losses back below 1.2200 triggered primarily by the dollar's strength as EUR/GBP has declined slightly.

The latest economic data recorded a sharp decline in the Lloyds business confidence index with a retreat to 1 for the August reading from 13 the previous month and the lowest reading since December 2011. Consumer confidence also worsened last month and political uncertainty will inevitably sap sentiment in the short term, but with a rapid turnaround if political uncertainty eases.

The Bank of England is unwilling to cut interest rates as long as a disruptive Brexit is avoided while the ECB will announce a comprehensive monetary-easing package in September.