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Bitcoin has been actively recovering for several weeks, but last week, it was also undermined by geopolitical news and the very likely increase in the Fed's interest rate. It was mentioned earlier that the news background for the world's first cryptocurrency, as well as for the entire cryptocurrency market, remains very weak. So, we can't imagine how Bitcoin could rise in the coming weeks. This is not an argument, but sometimes the instrument needs news support for its price to increase. Now, there is no news support, and Bitcoin's growth in recent weeks looks like a corrective wave as part of a downward trend. It is suggested to wait for signals. There aren't any at this time, but they may be.
Bitcoin is even now trading too low to provide a profit for most market participants. For the last two years, when the main digital asset showed its next rally to the highs, investors began to use it as a remedy against inflation. Demand grows in the long term, but the more investments flow into the cryptocurrency market, the more it must grow to provide profit to all market participants. And for other purposes, hardly anyone is buying Bitcoin now. There is such a situation in the world that even grandmothers on the bench in front of any high-rise building are already discussing the Bitcoin rate. And when its rate declines, it causes panic in the market, which can only be corrected by "long-term investors". These are large investors who are not chasing quick profits and are ready to hold coins for many years. However, the market consists not only of "long-term" and institutional investors. It will also be made up of so-called "hamsters" – small investors who are eager to make a profit as much as possible and as quickly as possible. Such "hamsters" immediately get rid of the coins as soon as the rate begins to sink. They pay attention to the news background, and as mentioned, it is very weak now and can only get worse day by day.
A new topic for the cryptocurrency market was the topic of tension that arose in Ukraine. It can be recalled that the Ukrainian authorities want to join NATO, which was hindered by its neighboring country. This geopolitical situation cannot be ignored by investors in any market. Bitcoin is the instrument that can pass $5-10 thousand in any direction in a day. Therefore, any geopolitical complication is potentially bad news for the cryptocurrency market. We believe that the stock markets can pull Bitcoin down as well.
The downward trend section continues to form. A failed attempt to break through the level of $34,238, which corresponds to 50.0% on the upper Fibonacci grid, allowed the quotes to start leaving the lows reached. However, it is still too early to talk about the end of the downward section of the trend. It can take a five-wave form and continue its construction with targets near $29,117 and $26,991, which equates to 0.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci within wave e. So far, the wave marking does not imply the construction of a new downward wave. There is not a single signal for this, and the corrective set of waves a - b - c looks quite complete, so the option of building a new upward trend section from the current levels can also be considered. To sell Bitcoin, new downward signals are needed – unsuccessful attempts to break through levels located above the current rate, or a reversal of the MACD indicator. In general, any signs that the upward wave that is currently being built is already done.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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