Ukrainian authorities have been considering declaring a nationwide state of emergency since Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the two self-proclaimed republics, which has increased tensions with Kyiv and raised concerns about a potential broader conflict.
Ukraine is going to introduce a state of emergency. There seems to be a war with Russia.
This measure, announced by the Secretary of the Security and Defense Council Alexey Danilov in Kyiv on Wednesday, will allow certain regions to impose restrictions. Restrictions on the movement of people, mass gatherings, and the media also require the approval of the Ukrainian Parliament.
According to Danilov, the state of emergency will last for the first 30 days, and parliamentary approval is expected on Wednesday.
Russia's recognition of the separatist-controlled territories of Donbas, which took place on February 22, as well as the constant presence of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, provoked a security crisis not only for Ukraine but also for the West. The United States and its European allies accuse the government in Moscow of undermining Ukraine's territorial integrity and violating international law.
At the same time, the United States and Britain claim that their intelligence still suggests that Russia is preparing to launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, including, possibly, the capital Kyiv. Moscow has repeatedly denied such plans, but now Putin's agreements with separatist territories at the official level will allow him to send troops to these areas and build bases there.
Putin said he would not send troops, which he calls "peacekeepers" yet. This will cause concern about the proximity to the line of contact between the separatists and the Ukrainian military. However, according to private reports from Donbas, Russian troops have already entered the disputed territory. Residents of Donetsk in social networks report that in parallel in the republics there is a mass mobilization, often forced. For evading military duties, up to two years' imprisonment is threatened.
There is now every reason to consider a large-scale military conflict between the two former allied states more than likely.
Until recently, Ukraine's position was much more advantageous.
The problem is that the Kremlin uses a position of strength in building international relations, and does not always clearly understand that for Western countries such a dictate of the "stronger" is not always acceptable.
That is why the Kremlin appealed to the US president with a proposal to sign an agreement on the refusal to deploy NATO troops on the territory of Ukraine.
The administration of President Putin does not realize that such an agreement cannot be signed within the framework of current international legislation.
Therefore, having advanced troops to the Ukrainian borders and using them as a weighty argument, the Kremlin nevertheless put forward impossible demands in advance.
Now it is difficult to judge what steps Moscow planned next. Perhaps the invasion was planned, but the Russians could only accept a quick victory - a protracted war is not beneficial to anyone.
However, the unusually warm weather put an end to any possible plans for quick capture, if they were being developed. The most reasonable solution in this situation was to send troops to the territory of the republics, regroup, and, after waiting for dry weather, resume pressure on Ukraine.
This is exactly the scenario that the events of recent days have developed. Russia recognized the independence of the two republics, and its units occupied these territories.
Therefore, the Kremlin could lose this round dry.
Moscow could also have initially planned to recognize the independence of the republics by concentrating troops in the north and northeast of Ukraine in advance as a "convincing argument."
All that remained for Ukraine was to wait. Most likely, the Kremlin would have stopped there for now. Since Putin's team has not achieved significant results in a short time, it would be an unacceptable luxury to continue escalating the situation for months.
Ukraine does not lose anything from Russia's recognition of the independence of the republics, since they have not been under its control for a long time. So Ukrainians could get at least a temporary respite and prepare for a possible military conflict better.
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made the biggest mistake of his life - he raised the issue of restoring the country's nuclear security program. In particular, he convened a Council of four countries that in the 90s acted as guarantors of the inviolability of Ukraine's security. He also warned that if the Security Council turns out to be useless, Ukraine may take its steps in this direction.
Having made such a statement, Zelensky signed the death sentence of Ukraine. Putin's team got an iron argument in their hands for any invasion, which can be presented without shame to both their fellow citizens and Western representatives - Russia's nuclear security.
Even the most liberal-minded Russians cannot object to the "nuclear argument". A possible offensive has received a new batch of arguments in its favor. And now it may well not be a quick offensive, but a planned and large-scale confrontation.
Alas, the chances that the Kremlin will decide to invade the territory of Ukraine to secure Moscow, which is too close to its western borders, and therefore in the zone of imminent defeat, increased significantly yesterday.
The first sanctions from the United States this year turned out to be too small, signaling to the Kremlin and the rest of the world the position of the States. So there is no one to "cover" Ukraine here either. Only Europe can still influence the distribution of forces, but it is unlikely that it will. Few Europeans are ready to shed blood for Ukrainians.
Most likely, Russia's offensive on Ukraine will begin in March-April, as soon as the spring thaw ends.
For world markets, this means that the hryvnia will continue to depreciate rapidly. The euro is also becoming too volatile. In the near future, the dollar, the Canadian dollar, and the pound sterling will benefit the most from the conflict.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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