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The International Monetary Fund said the UK will experience the slowest growth next year because of double-digit inflation and rising interest rates. Their latest outlook indicated that the global economy is currently fragile, so sliding into recession is possible. In fact, the FTSE 100 index already shows downside potential.
Accordingly, the IMF downgraded their rating for the UK in both 2022 and 2023, reflecting an increase in the forecast for peak inflation from 7.8% to 10.5%.
With regards to the battle over the seat of prime minister, Liz Truss accused her rival, Rishi Sunak, of pushing the economy into recession through tax increases. Sunak, meanwhile, accused Truss of planning to spur inflation, even though it is already at a 40-year high of 9.4%.
Sky-high inflation has eaten household incomes, causing poverty and the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades. The IMF said wage increases due to low inflation "undermine household purchasing power" and causes a slowdown in growth.
Bloomberg Economics estimates that the Truss tax cut will add 0.6% to 2023 GDP, pushing the UK's growth rate higher than that of France, Germany, Italy and the US. It would also add 0.4% to inflation, which will cause interest rates to rise by another 0.5%. Markets expect UK rates to hit 3%.
The biggest risks to global growth are inflation and rates, as well as the escalation of the war in Ukraine, which will drive up energy and food prices. A tight labor market will allow workers to earn higher payouts, while higher interest rates could lead countries to shrink.
The IMF has previously said that the UK faces a serious problem on inflation, linked both to high energy prices experienced by Europe and a shortage of jobs.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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