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At the moment, investors are waiting for cues on the interest rate trajectory from several central bank officials, including a scheduled speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later today. Traders will likely try to gauge how strongly global central banks will resist the fall in government bond yields, which hampers efforts to curb inflation. Today's speakers also include New York Fed President John Williams and Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, not to mention statements from various officials at the European Central Bank.
Fed speakers are expected to challenge and temper market expectations of rate cuts, similar to what happened earlier this week, a move that could provoke a rather negative market reaction. Economists note that many investors are underestimating the Fed's determination to bring inflation down to 2%, even if it means higher interest rates.
On Monday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari remarked that the fight against inflation is not over and that policymakers will undoubtedly consider further tightening if necessary. His colleague from Chicago, Charles Evans, stated that officials are averse to making premature commitments on future interest rates.
Meanwhile, strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc believe that if the Fed shifts its monetary policy and helps the economy avoid a recession, the stock market could show a double-digit rally in 2024.
Meanwhile, oil prices remain close to a three-month low, as the anticipated decline in US gasoline consumption adds to a growing number of indicators pointing to deteriorating demand prospects. In China, the world's largest oil importer, there is also a decline in demand as winter approaches. The fall in oil prices is closely related to fears of demand stagnation amid global economic uncertainties, and the evolving situation between Israel and Hamas is no longer having as strong an impact on market sentiment.
As for the S&P 500, the demand for the index remains. Now, bulls need to defend $4,357 and take control of $4,382. This will help strengthen the uptrend and also open up the possibility of a breakout to the level of $4,405. Bulls also should take control over $4,427, which will reinforce the bull market. If the index declines on the back of diminishing risk appetite, bulls will have to protect $4,357. Breaking through this level, the trading instrument may drop to $4,332 and plummet to $4,304.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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