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"The European Central Bank is now at a point where it can pause and assess the impact of its tightening," Lagarde said, echoing other policymakers who suggested on Friday that further tightening might not be necessary. Improved business confidence in Germany provided another glimmer of hope against the region's gloomy economic backdrop.
Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann stated that there was an equal chance of rate hikes or cuts in the second quarter of 2024, while his colleague Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that the central bank would not raise borrowing costs further unless unforeseen events occur.
Against this backdrop, the Stoxx Europe 600 index increased by approximately 0.2%, marking its best month since January this year. However, as indicated by yesterday's data, although the economic dynamics in the Eurozone are no longer deteriorating and show initial signs of stabilization, the fourth quarter may remain somewhat uncertain.
US Treasury bonds fell, reducing their returns. The yield on 10-year bonds increased by more than six basis points, following the decline in European bonds after Thursday's news that Germany might increase borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, global stock indices are on track for their best month in three years, with the MSCI All Country World index rising by 8.6% this month amid growing hopes of the end of the high-interest rate cycle in the US.
Indicators of business conditions, assessments of the current situation, and economic expectations for Germany in November of this year have risen for the third consecutive month, indicating an upcoming economic recovery in a region that is likely in recession and suffering from a budget crisis.
Asian indices showed mixed trading. Hong Kong and mainland China stocks fell, reversing Thursday's rally, which was triggered by Beijing's expanding campaign to rescue the real estate market.
Oil continued to decline after the OPEC+ alliance was forced to postpone a crucial meeting due to a dispute over production quotas.
As for the S&P 500, demand for the index remains intact. Bulls need to defend $4,557 and take control of $4,582. This will help strengthen the uptrend and open the possibility for a surge to $4,609. Bulls should also maintain control over $4,637, which will reinforce their positions. In case of a downward move due to reduced risk appetite, bulls will have to protect $4,557. A breakthrough may quickly push the trading instrument back to $4,539 and pave the way to $4,515.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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