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Ideally, the market was supposed to stagnate at least until today's opening of the European trading session. However, everything started moving right at the opening of the Asian session. And so sharply that it takes your breath away. But even more interesting is the reason for such a sudden and sharp strengthening of the dollar.
Right before the opening of the Asian trading session, American media started spreading information that the European Central Bank will lower its refinancing rate four times this year, and by the end of the year, it will drop to 3.0%. This had such an effect that the markets simply overlooked Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann's words. After all, Holzmann did not rule out the possibility of maintaining interest rates at the current level until next year. It's just that the leading American media are shouting much louder about the first piece of news.
However, the dollar's strengthening may continue for more objective reasons than rumors and speculation. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom is expected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%. And this is quite enough to weaken the pound, which will also drag down the euro.
The GBP/USD currency pair is moving in the lower area of the sideways channel 1.2600/1.2800, showing active interest in short positions. This movement arose amid a widespread increase in the volume of dollar positions.
On the four-hour chart, the RSI is moving in the 30/50 area, which corresponds to an increase in the volume of short positions for the pound sterling.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined with each other. This technical factor indicates stagnation, which corresponds to the existing sideways channel.
Outlook
Stable maintenance of the price below the average channel level of 1.2700 may strengthen short positions towards 1.2600. This movement will complete the cycle from the top to the bottom boundary of the flat. However, a return of the price above 1.2700 may interrupt the downward cycle within the channel, with subsequent fluctuation of the price in its upper area.
The comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicates a downward trend in the structure of the channel.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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