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EUR / USD
On Friday, moderate positive macroeconomic data came out in the USA, which allowed the dollar to strengthen throughout the market. Euro lost 75 points. Incomes of consumers in November increased by 0.2%, expenses increased by 0.4%. GDP for the third quarter in the final assessment was revised down from 3.5% to 3.4%, but investors did not adjust their positions strongly due to the recent rate increase. In the evening, President Trump, due to disagreement with the Congress on the financing of the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, stopped funding government agencies. But the markets in recent years have already acquired immunity to such shutdowns and are staying fairly stable. Especially since now such an action came during the Christmas holidays, and the new year is already closed, so the damage will be minimal. Trump himself suggested that the suspension will be short.
Today on trading floors shortened day. Sometimes it happens that strong movements occur in the thin market, but at the end of last week trading volumes were high, investors left the market and the likelihood of such a scenario decreased significantly. The price on the daily chart is between the lines of balance and Kruzenshtern, probably it will remain in this range. There are no conditions to go down, no forces to go up.
Also, on the four-hour chart, the price is above the balance lines and Kruzenshtern. On Wednesday, after Western Christmas, the market may show increased volatility and the euro can rise to the range of 1.1526 / 75, but technically for a downward price, it is enough to fix below the Friday minimum. Such a speculative breakthrough is also possible, even in spite of the American shutdown, because it is such an operation that can bring good profits. We are waiting for the development of the situation.
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