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GBP/USD is trading below the uptrend channel after it was broken on Jan 17 and below SMA 21 and 8/8 Murray.
The pound could be at risk of losing its bullish momentum and trading back at 1.31 levels. The UK annualized inflation data stood at 5.4% higher than expected. This data could weaken the sterling so that GBP/USD could fall back to levels of 1.3000 in the medium term.
On the other hand, Boris Johnson's participation in parties at the Downing Street Garden during the first lockdown in England in May 2020, is putting his position in jeopardy and political uncertainty weighing on the pound.
According to this fundamental data, the British pound would be making its last bullish wave by consolidating above 1.37. If it fails to consolidate above the 8/8 Murray located at 1.3671 the chances of a sustained drop could occur in the coming days to the 200 EMA located at 1.3503.
The weakness of the British currency, and the speculation regarding the US dollar on the possibility of an interest rate hike of 50 basis points in March fuels the dollar on all fronts.
Therefore, it is expected that the zone of resistance 1.3671 will be strong enough to give us an opportunity to sell with targets at 1.3503 (200 EMA) and until 1.3427 (6/8).
The eagle indicator is giving an oversold signal and for this reason we have seen a recovery of the pound in the last few hours. However, the uptrend channel that was broken has now become its resistance around 1.3671. This will be the key point to sell amid the new downtrend.
Support and Resistance Levels for January 19 - 20, 2022
Resistance (3) 1.3696
Resistance (2) 1.3671
Resistance (1) 1.3651
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Support (1) 1.3556
Support (2) 1.3520
Support (3) 1.3438
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Scenario
Timeframe H4
Recommendation: sell below
Entry Point 1.3646
Take Profit 1.3549 (7/8) and 1.3503 (200 EMA)
Stop Loss 1.3696
Murray Levels 1.3671 (8/8) 1.3549 (7/8) 1.3427 (6/8)
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