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American institutions, concerned about the continuation of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict and quarantine in China, are now also thinking that the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation may hinder economic growth. This served as an impetus to the growth of interest in placing funds in protective assets, which, in their opinion, can better survive turbulent times and, as a rule, bring high dividends.
Traditionally, these include the sectors of healthcare, utilities, consumer goods and real estate. These showed growth in April, even despite the fall of the market as a whole, continuing the trend in which they usually outperform the S&P 500 index in difficult times.
Their appeal has been increasing since November.
Now investors fear that the Fed will strangle the US economy as the central bank aggressively tightens policy to combat rising consumer prices.
Although there is strong economic growth now and there are not many reasons for concern, several large Wall Street banks have expressed concerns that the Fed's aggressive measures could lead to a recession, as they operate in an unstable economy.
Thus, the US Treasury bond market last month gave an alarming signal when the short-term yield of individual short-term government bonds exceeded the yield of long-term ones. The phenomenon known as the inverted yield curve predates past recessions.
The reason for the interest in shelters shows that people see "all these obstacles to growth," says Walter Todd, an investment fund manager.
While the S&P 500 is down nearly 8% in 2022, utilities are up more than 6%, essentials are up 2.5%, healthcare is down 1.7%, and real estate is down 6%.
The reporting season is gaining momentum next week. Companies in the sector also report, including healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson and the reputable manufacturer of basic foodstuffs Procter & Gamble. Investors will also be watching earnings from streaming giant Netflix and electric car maker Tesla.
However, it is likely that the revenues of almost all companies decreased after leaving the Russian markets and the shortage of goods from Chinese factories, so the markets are ready for some correction of the initial figures.
Nevertheless, there is also reason to believe that the flagships of the safe haven sectors will show profit due to the increase in prices announced last year.
Signs that U.S. corporate earnings will be higher than expected this year may support arguments in favor of other market sectors, including banks, travel firms or other companies that benefit from a growing economy. Fast-growing and technology companies also benefit, stocks usually grow on the general positive.
Defensive stocks have proven their worth in the past.
For example, DataTrek Research found that the healthcare, utilities and basic food sectors outperformed the S&P 500 by as much as 15-20 percentage points during periods of economic uncertainty over the past 20 years.
Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist, said that in recent weeks the company's multi-asset team has switched their portfolios to stocks of basic products, healthcare and utilities and reduced access to finance and industrial enterprises.
Expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance "have increased the risk that this economic cycle will become shorter and accelerated the shift of our allocations towards these defensive equity sectors," Goodwin said.
The Fed, which raised rates by 25 basis points last month, has signaled that it is ready for more significant rate hikes and a rapid reduction of its balance sheet by almost $9 trillion to reduce inflation.
With prices rising, defensive stocks can also be "somewhat inflationary hedges," said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist.
"When you think about where there is a little more pricing power, consumers will have to buy their basic products, their healthcare, maybe pay their utility bills, regardless of price increases," Mahajan notes.
Not all investors are pessimistic about the economic outlook, and many believe that momentum could quickly shift to another area of the market if it turns out that the economy remains strong.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist, estimates the probability of a recession this year at 35%, "but this is not our baseline scenario."
"As concerns about an impending recession recede, I think interest in protection assets will recede along with it," Hogan said.
The surge in defensive stocks has led to an increase in their value.
According to Refinitiv Datastream, the utilities sector is trading at a projected profit of 21.9 times, which is the highest level in the entire history of observations and significantly exceeds its five-year average price-to-profit ratio of 18.3 times. The core products sector is trading at a premium of about 11% to its average forward P/E over five years, and healthcare is trading at a premium of 5%.
"It wouldn't surprise me at all if I see some return to the average in this deal over a period of time," Todd said. "But as long as these concerns about growth persist, you can continue to see that these areas are relatively better."
The appeal to shelters looks logical against the background of increased quarantine measures in China, which force many multinational companies, such as Apple, to suffer additional damage due to production and logistical downtime. All this puts additional pressure on prices, spurring their growth. The reduction of the Russian market and the irrepressible increase in fuel prices fuels investors' fears on the other hand.
It is still difficult to say what figures the inflationary component will result in, but it is already clear that the first half of 2022 will be particularly turbulent. And the shares of safe haven companies are a good option to earn during this period.
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