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The key indices of the US stock market – Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 – ended Monday with a slight decline, which may develop into a new downward trend. We still believe that the US stock market remains vulnerable to the fundamental background we have at the moment, and it was rather strange for us to observe the growth of indices that have taken place in the last few weeks. However, in fairness, it should be noted that at the same time, the cryptocurrency market was also adjusted, in particular bitcoin, which we also regularly analyze. Of course, bitcoin went up much less willingly than American indices and stocks, but formally there is a correction. However, from our point of view, this is a correction, not the beginning of a new trend.
The main problem is that the Fed does not even intend to soften its monetary approach. For example, a couple of days ago, one of the members of the Fed monetary committee, Michelle Bowman, said that she supports a 0.75% rate hike at each subsequent meeting until inflation begins to show a significant slowdown. Recall that some members of the committee are also as aggressive as possible. And it is clear why –inflation did not even begin to slow down in its growth rates after all the actions of the Fed. Therefore, great hopes are pinned on tomorrow's inflation report for July. Experts expect the indicator to be high this time, but it will not grow even more than in June. If so, this will already be a positive moment for the Fed. However, it will not mean that an aggressive approach should begin to soften. Even if inflation slows by a couple of tenths of a percent, this will not mean that the rate has now been reversed by 2%. In general, from our point of view, Michelle Bowman and James Bullard are right when they continue to insist on the toughest and fastest increase in the key rate. By the way, the same Bowman said that she is not sure that inflation has already reached its maximum value. How can we not recall the words of Andrew Bailey, the head of the Bank of England, last week when he said that peak inflation could be 13%? And if the Bank of England expects inflation of 13%, then, in reality, it may be 15%. In general, we also hold the opinion that the process of accelerating inflation in the United States is not over yet. At best, considering all the measures taken by the Fed, inflation will remain near 9% for several months, which will still mean the need to raise the key rate by 0.75% in September.
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